Figures

2.1

Graphical display of probabilistic forecasting

14

3.1

REMO B2 scenario for the Rhine catchment: Frost days, ice days,

summer days and hot days

27

5.1

Time series of river discharges

53

5.2

Design discharge for the Rhine River

55

5.3

Political adjustments for the safety level of the Rhine River

56

5.4

Source, pathway, receptor and consequent steps involved in flood risk

management

57

5.5

Measures considered for the Room for the River project in

The Netherlands

57

5.6

Engineering safety margin for the dike design

58

5.7

Effect of retention basins on flood levels

59

5.8

Ripple method to determine safe yield and reservoir size

60

5.9

Benefits versus reliability of supply from Lake Nasser

62

5.10

Ensemble forecasts for the January 1995 event on the Rhine River

at Lobith

65

5.11

Predicted and observed inflow in Lake Nasser

66

5.12

Priority-setting in drought situations in The Netherlands

67

5.13

High Aswan Dam, Lake Nasser

67

5.14

Surface water reservoir rule curves and associated operation

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5.15

Average inflow in Nasser in relation to the water demand in Egypt

69

5.16

General framework and overriding criteria for IWRM

73

7.1

Adaptability (coping range) of the water system under current climatic

conditions

89

8.1

The decision-making process regarding climate change adaptation

strategies

114

9.1

Map of Thailand

126

9.2

Mean minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation for

Bangkok, Thailand

127

9.3

Adaptation to changing flood regimes as a consequence of climate change and other factors poses multiple governance challenges for fair

and effective flood and disaster management

130

10.1

Floodable areas of The Netherlands if there were no flood defences

144

10.2 Map of The Netherlands 145

10.3 Mean minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation for De Bilt, located in the middle of The Netherlands 146

10.4 Local water surplus under climate change and land-cover changes 149

11.1 Map of Yemen 160

11.2 Different types of alluvial aquifers in arid regions ('wadi aquifers') 162

11.3 Location of the aquifers mentioned in Table 11.1 164

11.4 Schematic geological cross-section across Wadi Hadramawt 166

12.1 Locality map of the Mgeni catchment and the major demand centres 178

12.2 Hydrological modelling process to determine the impacts of climate change upon local water resources 182

13.1 Location map of Australia 188

13.2 Mean minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation for Perth 189

13.3 Schematic diagram showing Perth's Integrated Water Supply Scheme (IWSS) 190

13.4 Perth seawater desalination plant, Kwinana 191

13.5 Dam inflow series for the Integrated Water Supply Scheme (1911-2006) 195

14.1 Location of the Berg River, South Africa 206

14.2 Mean minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation for Cape Town, South Africa 207

14.3 Berg River Spatial Equilibrium Model (BRDSEM) schematic diagram 210

14.4 Schematic diagram of the Berg River Basin: Upper section 212

14.5 Schematic diagram of Berg River Basin: Lower section as depicted in BRDSEM 213

14.6 On-farm use of water as represented in the model 214 15.1 Organizations from which experts were drawn for interviews for the study 231

16.1 Location of Angat Basin and Angat Reservoir in Luzon Island, the Philippines 251

16.2 Annual cycle of rainfall and inflows at Angat Reservoir 257

16.3 Hydroelectricity production for the years 1987 to 2001 using a forecast delivered in October and a forecast updated monthly from October to January 261

16.4 Additional irrigation water that could potentially be delivered according to the forecasts available in October, November and December 261

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