Predictability of climate variability at the seasonal timescale

Predictions (predictability), projections and scenarios are different terms, although they are often interchanged. A prediction is a forecast of what will happen in future. This can be a deterministic forecast ('tomorrow it will be raining') or a probabilistic forecast ('there will be a more than average chance that tomorrow it will rain'). The predictability of a phenomenon can be defined as the degree to which its evolution can be deduced from the known initial conditions and the known...

The Impacts of Climate Change on Water

A large proportion of solar energy is used to drive the hydrological cycle. This energy is mainly used for evaporation and subsequent precipitation. Due to higher greenhouse gas concentrations, more energy is available at the Earth's surface, which intensifies the hydrological cycle (Kabat and van Schaik, 2003 IPCC, 2007). As discussed in the previous chapters, climate variability and change have a large impact upon precipitation patterns and changes in rainfall are expected for the future....

Extreme value analysis

For designing infrastructure for floods and droughts, extreme value analysis is the first and most basic tool to incorporate variability, preferably based on many years of rainfall and river discharge data. The preferred length of the time series is at least 40 years as such a range of years will, in general, contain sufficient dry and wet periods. Two general approaches are available in extreme value analysis for modelling discharge and precipitation series. The annual maximum series considers...

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

AMRIS Angat-Maasim River Irrigation System ARGE Elbe Arbeitsgemeinschaft f r die Reinhaltung der Elbe (working group ARK Nationaal Programma Adaptatie Ruimte en Klimaat (national programme for spatial adaptation to climate change) BMU Bundesministerium f r Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit (German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety) BPIMO Bulacan Provincial Irrigation Management Office BRDSEM Berg River Dynamic Spatial Equilibrium Model BSIK...

Managing Water under Current Climate Variability

Throughout history, people have tried to cope with the variability of their climate. First this was done simply by living in areas in which this variability caused no or few problems (e.g. sufficiently far away from floodplains, or close to springs, lakes or oases with a reliable supply of water). Moreover, people developed sustenance and economic activities that matched their natural conditions - for example, growing crops that were suited to the specific climate in which they were living....