Summary Tables

Table 2 Predictions for the number of Hurricanes hitting US land for the 2007-2011 period

Model

5-year Prediction

5-year Prediction

of Cat 1-5 U.S.

of Cat 3-5 U.S.

Landfall Number

Landfall Number

1

Baseline Mean 1900-2006

1.70

0.64

2

Baseline Mean 1950-2006

1.56

0.63

3

Short Baseline 1995-2006

2.08

0.83

4

Mixed Baseline Elsner's Change Points

2.00

0.82

5

Mixed Baseline RMS Change Points

2.11

0.86

6

Indirect Short Baseline 1995-2006

2.05

0.92

7

Indirect Mixed Baseline Elsner Change Points

2.05

0.85

8

Indirect Mixed Baseline RMS Change Points

2.05

0.84

9

Flat-line SST prediction, linear link

1.84

0.82

10

Damped SST prediction, linear link

1.94

0.88

Table 2 (continued)

Model

5-year Prediction

5-year Prediction

of Cat 1-5 U.S.

of Cat 3-5 U.S.

Landfall Number

Landfall Number

11

Linear trend SST prediction, linear link

2.03

0.95

12

Flat-line SST prediction, log link

1.92

0.87

13

Damped SST prediction, log link

2.06

0.96

14

Linear Trend SST prediction, log link

2.21

1.08

15

Indirect prediction Flat-line SST linear link

1.96

0.89

16

Indirect prediction Damped SST linear link

2.09

0.98

17

Indirect prediction Linear Trend SST linear link

2.23

1.06

18

Indirect prediction Flat-line SST log link

2.03

0.92

19

Indirect prediction Damped SST log link

2.21

1.05

20

Indirect prediction Linear Trend SST log link

2.43

1.21

Table 3 Predictions for the number of Hurricanes hitting US land for the 2006-2010 period

Model

5-year

5-year

Prediction of

Prediction of

Cat 1-5 U.S.

Cat 3-5 U.S.

Landfall

Landfall

Number

Number

1

Baseline Mean 1900-2005

1.72

0.65

2

Baseline Mean 1950-2005

1.59

0.64

3

Short Baseline 1995-2005

2.27

0.91

4

Mixed Baseline Elsner's Change Points

2.06

0.85

5

Mixed Baseline RMS Change Points

2.19

0.89

6

Indirect Short Baseline 1995-2005

2.12

0.96

7

Indirect Mixed Baseline Elsner Change Points

2.12

0.90

8

Indirect Mixed Baseline RMS Change Points

2.12

0.90

9

Flat-line SST prediction, linear link

1.94

0.87

10

Damped SST prediction, linear link

2.04

0.93

11

Linear trend SST prediction, linear link

2.14

0.99

12

Flat-line SST prediction, log link

2.05

0.93

13

Damped SST log link

2.20

1.04

14

Linear Trend SSTprediction, log link

2.37

1.16

15

Indirect prediction Flat-line SST linear link

2.04

0.94

16

Indirect prediction Damped SST linear link

2.17

1.02

17

Indirect prediction Linear Trend SST prediction, linear link

2.29

1.10

18

Indirect prediction Flat-line SST log link

2.13

0.99

19

Indirect prediction Damped SST prediction, log link

2.31

1.12

20

Indirect prediction Linear Trend SST prediction, log link

2.52

1.28

Table 4 2008-2012 predictions from the model suite developed for the 2007 elicitation

Model 5-year Prediction 5-year Prediction

Table 4 2008-2012 predictions from the model suite developed for the 2007 elicitation

Model 5-year Prediction 5-year Prediction

of Cat 1-5 U.S. Landfall Number

of Cat 3-5 U.S. Landfall Number

1

Baseline Mean 1900-2007

1.74

0.69

2

Baseline Mean 1948-2007

1.63

0.72

3

Short Baseline 1995-2007

1.92

0.85

4a

Direct Climate Shift (Low)

1.30

0.53

4b

Direct Climate Shift (Current)

2.00

0.89

5a

Indirect Climate Shift (Low)

1.40

0.42

5b

Indirect Climate Shift (Current)

2.08

0.95

6

Flat-line SST prediction, linear link

1.87

0.90

7

Linear-trend SST prediction, linear link

1.95

0.95

8

Indirect Flat-line SST prediction

2.02

1.02

9

Indirect Linear-Trend SST prediction

2.14

1.10

10

Flat-line NH prediction

1.97

0.96

11

Linear-Trend NH prediction

2.05

1.02

12

Indirect Flat-Line NH prediction

2.17

1.12

13

Indirect Linear-Trend NH prediction

2.29

1.21

14

IPCC ensemble SST prediction

1.90

0.92

15

Indirect IPCC ensemble SST prediction

2.07

1.05

16

IPCC ensemble NH prediction

2.04

1.02

17

Indirect IPCC ensemble NH prediction

2.29

1.21

18

Windshear/SST

2.05

0.97

19a

SST Climate Shift (Low)

1.30

0.42

19b

SST Climate Shift (Current)

1.85

0.83

20a

Indirect SST Climate Shift (Low)

1.46

0.60

20b

Indirect SST Climate Shift (Current)

2.04

0.99

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