Bellone, et al., 2007: Statistical testing of the proportion of hurricanes making landfall, in preparation.
Bengtsson, 2001: Weather - Hurricane threats, Science, 293, 440-441.
Binter, et al., 2006: Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of multiple levels of activity since 1900, http://www.arxiv.org/abs/physics/ 0611070, 7 Nov. 2006.
Binter, et al., 2007a: Statistical modeling of the relationship between main development region sea surface temperature and Atlantic basin hurricane numbers, http://www.arxiv.org/abs/physics/ 0701170, 29 Jan. 2007.
Binter, et al., 2007b: Statistical modeling of the relationship between main development region sea surface temperature and landfalling Atlantic basin hurricane numbers, http://www.arxiv.org/ abs/physics/0701173,15 Jan. 2007.
Bove, M.C., et al., 1998: Effect of El Nino on U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, 79, 2477-2482.
Camargo, and Sobel, 2005: Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity and ENSO, J. Climate, 18, 2996-3006.
DeMaria, M., et al., 1993: Upper-level angular momentum fluxes and tropical cyclone intensity change, J. Atmos. Sci, 50, 1133-1147.
De Maria, 1996: The effect of vertical shear on tropical cyclone intensity change, J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2076-2087.
Eisner, J.B., and C.P. Schmertmann, 1993: Improving Extended-Range Seasonal Predications of Intense Atlantic Hurricane Activity, Weather and Forecasting, 121, 345-351.
Elsner, J.B., et al., 1999: Fluctuations in North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency, J. Climate, 12, 427-437.
Elsner, J.B., et al., 2000: Spatial variations in major U.S. hurricane activity: Statistics and a physical mechanism, J. Climate, 13, 2293-2305.
Elsner, J.B., et al., 2001: Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 29th Century, Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 1743-1746.
Elsner, J.B., et al., 2004: Detecting shifts in hurricane rates using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach, J. Climate, 17, 2652-2666.
Elsner, J.B., 2006: Evidence in support of the climate change-Atlantic hurricane hypothesis, Geophysical Research Letters, v33, L16705, doi:10.1029/2006GL026869, August 2006.
Emanuel, K., 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 436, 686-688.
Enfield, D.B., and L. Cid-Serrano, 2006: Projecting the risk of future climate shifts. Int'l J. Climatology, 26, 885-895.
Epstein, E.S., 1985: Statistical inference and prediction in climatology: a Bayesian approach, Meteorol. Monographs, 20. Am. Meteorol. Soc., p.199.
George, E.I., et al., 2006: Improved minimax prediction under Kullback-Leibler loss, Annals of Statistics, 34, 78-91.
Goldenberg, S.B., and L.J. Shapiro, 1996: Physical mechanisms for the association of El Nino and West African rainfall with Atlantic major hurricane activity, J. Climate, 9, 1169-1187.
Goldenberg, S.B., et al., 2001: The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and Implications, Science, 293, 474-479.
Gray, W.M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms, Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669-700.
Gray, S.T., et al., 2004: A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D., GRL, 31, No. 12, L1220510.1029/2004GL019932.
Hall, T., and S. Jewson, 2005: Statistical modeling of tropical cyclone tracks: a semi-parametric model for the mean trajectory, http://www.arxiv.org/abs/physics/0503231, 31 Mar. 2005.
Hall, T., and S. Jewson, 2006a: Comparing classical and Bayesian methods for predicting hurricane landfall rates, http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611006, 01 Nov. 2006.
Hall, T., and S. Jewson, 2006b: Predicting hurricane regional landfall rates: comparing local and basin-wide track model approaches, http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611103, 10 Nov. 2006.
Hall, T., and S. Jewson, 2007: SST and North American tropical cyclone landfall: a statistical modeling study, http://arxiv.org/abs/0801.1013
Hansen, J.E., and S. Lebedeff, 1987: Global trends of measured surface air temperature. J. Geophys. Res., 92, 13345-13372.
Hoyos, et al., 2006: Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity, Science, 312, 94-97.
Jarrell, J.D., et al., 1992: Hurricane Experience Levels of Coastal County Populations from Texas to Maine, NOAA Technical Memorandum, NWS TPC-1.
Jarvinen, et al., 1984: A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886-1983: Contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC 22, Coral Gables, Florida, p.21.
Jewson, S., 2004: The Relative Importance of Trends, Distributions and the Number of Years of Data in the Pricing of Weather Options, http://ssrn.com/abstract=516503, 11 March 2004.
Jewson, S., 2004: Probabilistic forecasting of temperature: comments on the Bayesian model averaging approach, http://www.arxiv.org/abs/physics/0409127, 24 Sept. 2004.
Jewson, S., and J. Penzer, 2004: Weather derivative pricing and the detrending of meteorological data: an empirical evaluation of damped linear detrending, http://ssrn.com/abstract=623381, 26 Nov. 2004.
Jewson, S., and J. Penzer, 2005: Weather derivative pricing and the detrending of meteorological data: three alternative representations of damped linear detrending, http://ssrn.com/ab-stract=653241, 24 Jan. 2005.
Jewson, S., et al., 2005: Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines, http://www.arxiv.org/abs/physics/0512113, 13 Dec. 2005.
Jewson, S., and J. Penzer, 2006a: An objective change-point analysis of historical Atlantic hurricane numbers, http://www.arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611071, 7 Nov. 2006.
Jewson, S., and J. Penzer, 2006b: An objective change-point analysis of landfalling historical Atlantic hurricane numbers, http://www.arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611071, 7 Nov. 2006.
Jewson, S., and J. Penzer, 2006c: Estimating trends in weather series: consequences for pricing derivatives, Studies in Non-linear Dynamics and Econometrics, 10, No. 3, Article 9.
Jewson, S., et al., 2006: Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines for intense hurricanes, http://www.arxiv.org/abs/phys-ics/0606192, 21 Jun. 2006.
Jewson, S., et al., 2007a: Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from sea surface temperatures: theoretical comparisons of direct and indirect approaches, http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701176, 29 Jan 2007.
Jewson, S., et al., 2007b: Predicting hurricane numbers from sea surface temperature: closed-form expressions for the mean, variance and standard error of the number of hurricanes, http://arxiv. org/abs/physics/0701167, 15 Jan. 2007.
Jewson, S., et al., 2007c: Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: basic statistical analysis, http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701166, 29 Jan. 2007.
Kerr, 2005: Is Katrina a Harbinger of Still More Powerful Hurricanes?, Science, 309, 1807.
Khare, and Jewson, 2005a: Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers, http:// www.arxiv.org/abs/physics/0507165, 21 July 2005.
Khare, and Jewson, 2005b: Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes, http://www.arxiv.org/abs/physics/0512092, 10 Dec. 2005.
Klotzbach, 2006: Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years, 1986-2005, Geophys. Res. Letts., 35, L10805, doi: 10.1029/2006GL025881.
Knutson, T.R., and R.E. Tuleya, 1999: Increased hurricane intensities with CO2-induced warming as simulated using the GFDL hurricane prediction system, Climate Dynamics, 15, 503-519.
Knutson, T.R., and R.E. Tuleya, 2004:Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization, J.Climate, 17, 3477-3495.
Komaki, F., 2001: A shrinkage predictive distribution for multivariate normal observables, Biometrika, 88, 859-864.
Laepple, T., et al., 2007a: Correlations between hurricane numbers and sea surface temperature: why does the correlation disappear at landfall?, http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701175, 15 Jan. 2007.
Laepple, T., et al., 2007b: Five year prediction of sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic: a comparison of simple statistical methods, http://arxiv/org/abs/physics/0701162, 15 Jan. 2007.
Laepple, T., and S. Jewson, 2007: Five year ahead prediction of sea surface temperature in tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical models, http://arxiv. org/abs/physics/0701165, 15 Jan. 2007.
Landsea, C.W., 1998: The extremely active 1995 Atlantic hurricane season: environmental conditions and verification of seasonal forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1174-1193.
Landsea, C.W., et al., 1999: Atlantic basin hurricanes: Indices of climatic changes, Climatic Change, 42, 89-129.
Lavielle, M., and M. Labarbier, 2001: An application of MCMC methods for the multiple change-points problem, Signal Process, 81, 39-53.
Litterman, R.B., 1986: Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions - 5 years of experience, The Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 4, 25-38.
Lonfat, M., A. Boissonnade, and R. Muir-Wood, 2007: Atlantic basin, U.S. and Caribbean landfall activity rates over the 2006-2010 period: an insurance industry perspective. Tellus A, 59, 499510.
Lyons, S.W., 2004: U.S. Tropical Cyclone Landfall Variability: 1950-2002, Weather and Forecasting, 19, 473-480.
Mann, and Emanuel, 2006: Atlantic Hurricane Trends Linked to Climate Change, EOS Transactions, AGU, 87, 233-244.
Meagher, J., and S. Jewson, 2006: Year-ahead prediction of hurricane season sea surface temperature, http://www.arxiv.org/abs/physics/0606185, 21 June 2006.
Nzerem, K., et al., 2006: Change-point detection in the historical hurricane number time-series: why can't we detect change-points at US landfall?, http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611107, 10 Nov. 2006.
Peixoto, J.P., and A.H. Oort, 1992: Physics of Climate, American Institute of Physics, p.520.
Raper, S.C.B., 1993: Observational data on the relationships between climatic change and the frequency and magnitude of severe tropical storms. Climate and Sea Level Change: Observations, Projections and Implications, R.A. Warrick, E.M. Barrow and T.M.L. Wigley, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 192-212.
Rayner, et al., 2002: Global analysis of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, D14 4407, doi:10.1029/ 2002JD002670.
Saunders, M.A., and A.R. Harris, 1997: Statistical evidence links exceptional 1995 Atlantic hurricane season to record sea warming, Geophys. Res. Letts., 24, 1255-1258.
Saunders, M.A., and A.S. Lea, 2005: Seasonal prediction of hurricane activity reaching the coast of the United States, Nature, 434, 1005-1008.
Schlesinger, M.E., and N. Ramankutty, 1994: An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65-70 years, Nature, 367, 723-726.
Shapiro, L.J., 1982: Hurricane climate fluctuations. Part I: Patterns and cycles, Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 1014-1023.
Shapiro, L.J., and S.B. Goldenberg, 1989: Atlantic sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone formation, J. Climate, 11, 578-590.
Shephard, N., 1993: Distribution of the ML estimator of a MA(1) and a local level model, Econometric Theory, 9, 377-401.
Smith, D. et al., 2007: Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model, Science, 317, 796-799.
Solow, A.R., and L. Moore, 2000: Testing for a trend in a partially incomplete hurricane record, J. Climate, 13, 2293-2305.
Sriver, R.L., and M. Huber, 2006: Low frequency variability in globally integrated tropical cyclone power dissipation, Geophysical Res. Letts., 33, L11705 doi:10.1029/2006GL026167.
Sutton, R.T., and D.L.R. Hodson, 2005: Atlantic Forcing of North American and European summer climate; Science, 309, 115-118.
Trenberth, K., 2005: Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming; Science, 17, 1753-1754, 2005.
Trendberth, K.E., and D.J. Shea, 2006: Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005, GRL, 33, doi:10.1029/2006GL026894.
Vecchi, G.A., and B.J. Soden, 2007: Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming, GRL, 34, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905.
Vitart, F., and J.L. Anderson, 2001: Sensitivity of Atlantic Tropical Storm Frequency to ENSO and Interdecadal Variability of SSTs in an Ensemble of AGCM Integrations, J. Climate, 14, 533-545.
Webster, P.J., et al., 2005: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science, 309, 1844-1846.
Zehr, R.M., 1992: Tropical cyclogenesis in the Western Pacific, NOAA Technical Report NESDIS, 61, NOAA; Washington D.C., USA.
Was this article helpful?