Model Comparison

The prediction models described represent a variety of ways to predict future hurricane numbers given different assumptions. The skill of the models is measured by comparing the root mean squared errorin out-of-sample hindcasting tests to the root mean squared error of the long term mean. The out of sample hindcasting was performed with a buffer around the years to be predicted in order to prevent correlated information leaking into the test set and artificially reducing error. Figure 7 shows the root mean squared errors for a number of the models with 5% to 95% confidence intervals. Except for the medium term baseline, the models historically (since the 60s) all produce more accurate forecasts than the long term baseline. This figure also shows that indirect methods tend to have less error than direct methods. For cat 1-5 hurricane predictions, none of the model errors are significantly lower than the RMSEfor the long term mean but, for the more intense o

Model Number

Model Number

Fig. 7 Out-of-Sample Root Mean Squared Error of (a) Landfalling Cat 1-5 and (b) Landfalling Cat 3-5 model predictions hindcast from 1960-1964 to 2003-2007. Bars represent the 5% and 95% confidence intervals. Models listed are 1. Long Term Mean 2. Medium Term Mean 3. Flat Line SST 4. Linear Trend SST 5. IPCC SST 6. Flat Line NH-SST 7. Linear Trend NH-SST 8. IPCC NH-SST 9. 50/50 SST 10. 50/50 NH-SST 11. Indirect Flat Line SST 12. Indirect Linear Trend SST 13. Indirect IPCC SST 14. Indirect Flat Line NH-SST 15. Indirect Linear Trend NH-SST 16. Indirect IPCC NH-SST 17. Indirect 50/50 SST 18. Indirect 50/50 NH-SST

Model Number

Fig. 7 Out-of-Sample Root Mean Squared Error of (a) Landfalling Cat 1-5 and (b) Landfalling Cat 3-5 model predictions hindcast from 1960-1964 to 2003-2007. Bars represent the 5% and 95% confidence intervals. Models listed are 1. Long Term Mean 2. Medium Term Mean 3. Flat Line SST 4. Linear Trend SST 5. IPCC SST 6. Flat Line NH-SST 7. Linear Trend NH-SST 8. IPCC NH-SST 9. 50/50 SST 10. 50/50 NH-SST 11. Indirect Flat Line SST 12. Indirect Linear Trend SST 13. Indirect IPCC SST 14. Indirect Flat Line NH-SST 15. Indirect Linear Trend NH-SST 16. Indirect IPCC NH-SST 17. Indirect 50/50 SST 18. Indirect 50/50 NH-SST

hurricanes, cat 3-5, three of the SST predictions do have significantly lower error than the long term mean.

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Survival Treasure

Survival Treasure

This is a collection of 3 guides all about survival. Within this collection you find the following titles: Outdoor Survival Skills, Survival Basics and The Wilderness Survival Guide.

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