The simplest method we present for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is based on taking an average of the number of hurricanes that made landfall in the historical data, using data as far back as is considered accurate. We call this method the 'long baseline' method. As mentioned in section 2, we consider landfalling hurricane number data to be accurate back to 1900, and so our first prediction is based on the average number of hurricanes per year from 1900. In the insurance industry this is the traditional method used for estimating future hurricane numbers and, in some cases, is still used. The 2006-2010 predictions from this method are given in row 1 of Table 2 in the summary section. The 2007-2011 predictions are given in Table 3, and the 2008-2012 predictions are given in Table 4. Since there has been some discussion as to whether the intensities of storms prior to 1950 were really estimated correctly, as mentioned in section two, we also present results for an alternative baseline that extends from 1950 to the present in row 2 of the summary tables. We call this the 'medium baseline' model.
Was this article helpful?