Discussion and Conclusions

In this study we have analysed how different RCMs simulate changes of extreme intensity of cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in the month of September for a particular emissions scenario. The uncertainty due to differing RCMs, which is relatively low regarding the future evolution of variables like temperature (Deque et al., 2007), is here very important, as the responses from the different RCMs range

Fig. 7a As Fig. 6b, but for the most intense cyclone in PROMES CTRL simulation

from no change in extreme intensity to a large change which is due to the formation of strong tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea.

There are several other important sources of uncertainty that have to be analysed before reaching clear conclusions regarding the risk of tropical cyclone development. One of them is the use of different GCMs. Tipically the uncertainty due to GCMs is larger (Deque et al., 2007) than the uncertainty due to RCMs. Different coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM simulations will yield a different evolution of Mediterranean SSTs. For example, the global model of CNRM used also in some o a

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