Contents

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Effects on Tropical Cyclones 1

Kevin Walsh, David Karoly, and Neville Nicholls

Electrification in Hurricanes: Implications for Water

Vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer 21

Jasna V. Pittman, Themis G. Chronis, Franklin R. Robertson, and Timothy L. Miller

Long-Term Natural Variability of Tropical Cyclones in Australia 35

Jonathan Nott

Statistical Link Between United States Tropical Cyclone

Activity and the Solar Cycle 61

James B. Elsner and Thomas H. Jagger

Five Year Prediction of the Number of Hurricanes that make United States Landfall 73

Stephen Jewson, Enrica Bellone, Thomas Laepple, Kechi Nzerem,

Shree Khare, Manuel Lonfat, Adam O'Shay, Jeremy Penzer, and Katie Coughlin

A New Index for Tropical Cyclone Development from

Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation Fields 101

John A.T. Bye, Wenju Cai, and Tim Cowan

Probability of Hurricane Intensification and United States Hurricane Landfall under Conditions of Elevated Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures 121

Peter S. Dailey, Greta Ljung, Gerhard Zuba, and Jayanta Guin

Wavelet-Lag Regression Analysis of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 139

John Moore, Aslak Grinsted, and Svetlana Jevrejeva

Network Analysis of U.S. Hurricanes 153

Emily A. Fogarty, James B. Eisner, Thomas H. Jagger, and Anastasios A. Tsonis

Migration of the Tropical Cyclone Zone Throughout the Holocene 169

Terrence A. McCloskey and Jason T. Knowles

Aerosol Effects on Lightning and Intensity of Landfalling Hurricanes 189

N. Cohen and A. Khain

Response of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Global Warming in an IPCC AR4 Scenario 213

Jean-Francois Royer and Fabrice Chauvin

Risk of Tropical Cyclones Over the Mediterranean

Sea in a Climate Change Scenario 235

Miguel Angel Gaertner, Marta Domínguez, Victoria Gil, and Enrique Sanchez

A Fast Non-Empirical Tropical Cyclone Identification Method 251

Norihiko Sugimoto, Minh Tuan Pham, Kanta Tachibana, Tomohiro Yoshikawa, and Takeshi Furuhashi

Boundary Layer Model for Moving Tropical Cyclones 265

Andreas Langousis, Daniele Veneziano, and Shuyi Chen

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming in a General Circulation Model 287

S. Gualdi, E. Scoccimarro, and A. Navarra

Relationship between ENSO and North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency Simulated in a Coupled

General Circulation Model 323

Satoshi Iizuka and Tomonori Matsuura

Modeling of Tropical Cyclones and Intensity Forecasting 339

Zafer Boybeyi, Menas Kafatos, and Donglian Sun

Roadmap to Assess the Economic Cost of Climate Change with an Application to Hurricanes in the United States 361

Stephane Hallegatte

The Science and Politics Problem: Policymaking, Climate

Change and Hurricanes 387

Glen Sussman

Index 413

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Survival Treasure

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