1.1 Links between parts of the climate system, including feedbacks that may accelerate climate change and its impacts 18

2.1 Intensity of global hurricanes according to the Saffir-Simpson scale (categories 1 to 5), in 5-year periods, showing the total number of storms (left) and percentage of total number of hurricanes in each category class (right) 30

2.2 Number of total named storms, hurricanes and category 4—5

storms since 1851, filtered by an 11-year running mean 31

2.3 Evolution of the sea surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1970-2004 period for the North Atlantic, Western Pacific, East Pacific, South Indian Ocean, Southwest Pacific and North Indian Ocean Basins 32

2.4 Number of total named storms in the North Atlantic and the average sea surface temperature in the main development region, filtered by an 11-year running mean 33

4.1 February sea ice coverage averaged over the 26 years 1979-2004, for (a) the Northern Hemisphere, and (b) the Southern Hemisphere

(see Plate 1 for color version) 50

4.2 August sea ice coverage averaged over the years 1979-2004, for (a) the Northern Hemisphere, and (b) the Southern Hemisphere

(see Plate 2 for color version) 51

4.3 Annual average sea ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere, 19792004, derived from data from the satellite-borne SMMR and SSMI instruments 52

4.4 Annual averaged sea ice extent for 1979-2004, as derived from data from the satellite-borne SMMR and SSMI instruments, for (a)

the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan and (b) the Bering Sea 54

4.5 Annual averaged sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere, 1979-2004, as derived from data from the satellite-borne SMMR

and SSMI instruments 55

4.6 Annual averaged sea ice extent for 1979—2004, as derived from data from the satellite-borne SMMR and SSMI instruments, for (a) the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas and (b) the Ross Sea 56

5.1 Ice velocity mosaic of the Greenland Ice Sheet assembled from year 2000 Radarsat-1 interferometry data, color coded on a logarithmic scale from 1 m/yr (brown) to 3 km/yr (purple), overlaid on a map of radar brightness from ERS-1/Radarsat-1/Envisat radar images

(see Plate 3 for color version) 64

5.2 The ice front of Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier, East Greenland in 2005

(see Plate 4 for color version) 66

5.3 Air temperature records for several stations around Greenland showing the strong warming since the 1980s (Angmassalik and Godthab), and a shorter period of warming in the 1930s 69

6.1 Map of Antarctica showing annual change in height of various locations of the ice sheet (see Plate 5 for color version)

6.2 Satellite image of the Antarctic Peninsula, showing the rapid break-up of the Larsen B ice shelf over about five weeks in 2002 (see Plate 6

for color version) 78

7.1 Reconstructed sea level rise in the Chesapeake Bay over the last millennium from various radiocarbon dates and other data 88

7.2 The Baltimore tide gauge data for sea level change in the Chesapeake

Bay during the 20th century 89

7.3 Changes in Sharps Island since the 17th century 90

7.4 Mean elevations above mean sea level for the Chesapeake Bay region, showing the likelihood that areas will be flooded for different levels of sea level rise induced by global warming (see Plate 7 for color version) 91

7.5 Hearst newspaper reconstruction of Galveston Island about 3 pm,

8 August 1900 93

7.6 Large waves demolishing docks and boathouses at the Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 94

7.7 Marsh loss at Blackwater Wildlife Refuge on the Maryland Eastern Shore from 1988-2001 as derived from satellite data (see Plate 8

for color version) 96

8.1 Location of the six major deltas of the Mississippi River that have developed during the past 9000 years 103

8.2 Estuarine systems located along the US coastline of the Gulf of

Mexico 104

8.3 Laguna Madre of Texas 105

8.4 Geographic distribution of short-term linear trends in mean sea level for 1993-2003 based on TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry

(see Plate 9 for color version) 109

8.5 The Mississippi delta, including the Chandeleur Islands (see Plate

10 for color version) 111

8.6 Sea surface temperature trend in the main hurricane development region of the North Atlantic during the past century 112

8.7 Sea surface temperature trend in the Gulf of Mexico region derived using the ERSST v.2 database 113

8.8 Land surface elevation and roads in the central Gulf Coast region

(see Plate 11 for color version) 113

9.1 Map of Metropolitan New York showing inundation predictions for a 100-year flood at present mean sea level 120

9.2 Storm surge of the 21-22 September 1938 hurricane 121

9.3 Storm surge of the 5-8 March 1962 nor'easter 122

9.4 Metropolitan New York elevations, landforms and SLOSH model inundation zones for category 1 to 4 hurricanes (see Plate 12 for color version) 123

9.5 Digital terrain map of Long Island, NY (see Plate 13 for color version) 124

9.6 Goddard Institute of Space Studies projected sea level rise for New York City to the year 2100 using two IPCC scenarios A1B

andB1 125

9.7 Thames River barrier with the gates partially open in the undershot position for flushing away accumulated sediments 130

9.8 Various positions of the Tainter gates in the Thames River barrier 131

9.9 The Netherlands' Nieuwe Waterweg (New Waterway) storm surge barriers, spanning the 360 m width of the river, were opened in

1997 132

9.10 A second example of Dutch engineering is the Eastern Scheldt barrier, completed in 1986 133

9.11 After decades of controversy, a decision was made by the Italian government in 2002 to construct three inflatable storm surge barriers across the entrances of the lagoon separating the city of Venice from the Adriatic Sea 134

9.12 Sketch of the storm surge barrier and seawall system that is presently under construction to protect the city of St Petersburg, Russia (see Plate 14 for color version) 135

9.13 Stamford CT hurricane barrier in a partially closed position 136

9.14 Horizontal axis Tainter gates built across Providence RI Harbor 137

10.1 Storm damage on the south shore of Long Island: Narrow beaches enable storm wave energy to reach fixed structures 144

10.2 Wetlands loss at Blackwater, Maryland, since 1938, from aerial photographs 147

10.3 The Galveston seawall has protected buildings and coastal infrastructure at the expense of the beach 148

10.4 Storm surge height forecast from IHRC's CEST model for Hurricane Katrina (see Plate 15 for color version) 149

10.5 The IHRC 2-fan Wall of Wind apparatus, capable of generating

120 mph winds for destructive testing of houses 150

12.1 Main areas of deforestation and land degradation from 19802000 (see Plate 16 for color version) 165

12.2 Projected outlook for coral reefs as ocean temperature rises as a result of climate change 166

12.3 Past and projected changes in ocean chemistry as a result of the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration 167

12.4 Number of major wild fires by continent and decade since 1950 168

12.5 Distribution of ecosystems across the US at present and for two climate change scenarios based on projections to 2100 from results prepared for the US National Assessment (see Plate 17 for color version) 169

12.6 Present and projected distribution of sugar maple trees based on the results of five general circulation climate models assuming a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration (see Plate 18

for color version) 170

12.7 Types of impacts associated with various regions of the US based on studies done for the US National Assessment 171

13.1 Seasonal soil temperature profiles collected from mature black spruce stands at an elevation of 650 m 177

13.2 Typical mature black spruce forests found in interior Alaska 178

13.3 Distribution of organic layer depths measured in burned and unburned Alaskan black spruce forests (see Plate 19 for color version) 179

13.4 Patterns of post-fire regrowth in black spruce-feather moss forests that burned in July and August of 1994 181

13.5 Patterns of post-fire regrowth from a fire event that occurred in

June 1999 183

13.6 Historical patterns of annual burned area in Alaska (see Plate 20

for color version) 184

13.7 Seasonal patterns of burned area for two periods for small and larger fire years in Alaska (see Plate 21 for color version) 185

14.1 Four-month-old cubs snuggle up to their mother during research activities on the ecology of polar bears in the Beaufort Sea,

Canada 194

14.2 Circumpolar distribution of polar bears showing high and low density (see Plate 22 for color version) 195

14.3 Partially consumed adult ringed seal killed by an adult male polar bear in the Beaufort Sea, Canada 196

14.4 Subpopulation boundaries for polar bears 198

14.5 Partially consumed adult female polar bear killed by another polar bear, spring 2006, Beaufort Sea, Canada 200

19.1 Percentage growth by technology sector of contributions to global energy generation from 2001-2005 242

19.2 Global investment in renewable energy from 1995-2005 243

19.3 Global construction starts for wind and nuclear power from 1980-2005 244

19.4 Comparative amounts of land area required to produce 30 per cent of US electricity using wind power, solar power and geothermal energy 245

20.1 Combined heat and power production (or distributed energy —

DE) as a percentage of total power, by country 250

23.1 Equivalence of greenhouse gas reduction projects to onsite reductions (see Plate 23 for color version) 285


2.1 Projections for the average total number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (named storms) for 2025 35

9.1 Comparative barrier costs in 2006 US$, updated using the US Bureau of Reclamation Construction Cost Trends Composite

Trend 139

9.2 SLOSH-estimated storm surges in meters (feet in parentheses) associated with a direct hit of hurricanes of various intensities 139

9.3 Comparative delays between serious flooding events and final completion of storm surge barriers for seven locations 141

20.1 Capital required to provide an incremental kilowatt of peak load power 251

22.1 Energy Action's week of action by the numbers 273

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