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Overall structure of uncertainty analysis

These necessary data include percentage uncertainty estimates and underlining probability density functions (PDFs - discussed in Section 3.1.4) for input to an emission inventory uncertainty analysis. Methods for combining input uncertainties to arrive at uncertainty estimates for single categories and the overall inventory result are detailed in Section 3.2.3. Two Approaches are given for combining uncertainties. Approach 1 is a relatively simple spreadsheet-based calculation procedure based upon some assumptions to simplify the calculations. Approach 2 is based upon Monte Carlo simulation and can be applied more generally. Either approach provides an estimate of the overall uncertainties associated with the total greenhouse gas inventory.

Approach 1 propagation of error

Approach 1 should be implemented using Table 3.2, Approach 1 Uncertainty Calculation, that can be set up on commercial spreadsheet software. The table is completed at the category level using uncertainty ranges for activity data and emission factors consistent with the sectoral good practice guidance9. Different gases should be entered separately as CO2 equivalents.

Dealing with large and assymmetric uncertainties

Section 3.7.3 provides details on how the results from Approach 1 can be interpreted if the relative range of uncertainty is large for a quantity that must be non-negative. The error propagation method that is the basis for Approach 1 works well if the uncertainties are relatively small, meaning that the standard deviation divided by the mean is less than 0.3. If the uncertainties are larger, Approach 1 may continue to be used, providing informative results. However without any corrections, this approach will tend to underestimate uncertainty of the multiplicative (or quotient) terms. Furthermore, if the relative uncertainties are large for non-negative quantities, then the uncertainty ranges are typically asymmetric, and Approach 1 does not quantify such asymmetry. A second option is to use Approach 2, however this may not be always feasible. A third option is to use Approach 1 with corrections. For example, as discussed in more detail later in Section 3.7.3, an uncertainty of -65 to...

Choosing A Simulation Technique And Sample Size

Several commercially available software tools can be used to perform Monte Carlo simulation. These tools can be stand-alone or used as add-ins to commonly used spreadsheet programs. Many software tools offer an option of different sampling methods, including random Monte Carlo simulation and variations of Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), which can produce 'smoother' looking model output distributions for sample sizes of only a few hundred samples. The disadvantage of using LHS is that one must decide ahead of time how many iterations to use. This is because two or more LHS simulations cannot be combined since they will use overlapping strata, leading to difficulties in interpreting results. In some cases, LHS can yield underestimates of the higher moments of PDFs, since the stratification method also can preclude clustering of very high or low values as can occur in random data sets. The overall suggestion is to use random Monte Carlo simulation as the default method, because it will...

Calculationrelated QC

It is a prerequisite that all calculations leading to emission or removal estimates should be fully reproducible. It is good practice to discriminate between input data, the conversion algorithm of a calculation and the output. Not only does the output need to be recorded, but also the input, the conversion algorithm, and how this algorithm accesses the input. Box 6.4 provides practical hints how to record a calculation procedure in standard spreadsheet or database calculations. Such an approach allows for intrinsic documentation of the work, and for easy understanding of the calculation procedure. The documentation should be retained with the material archived in support of the completed inventory. When using spreadsheets Clearly reference to the data source of any numbers typed into the spreadsheet (see above documentation criteria for data sources). Clearly mark cells in the spreadsheet containing derived data as 'results' and annotate them as to how and where they are then used....

Annex 6A1 QC checklists

Title(s) and Date(s) of Inventory Spreadsheet(s) 2. Review spreadsheets with computerised checks and or quality check reports 3. Identify spreadsheet 6. Confirm that bibliographical data references are included (in spreadsheet) for every primary data element 7. Check that all appropriate citations from the spreadsheets appear in the inventory document 8. Check that all citations in spreadsheets and inventory are complete (i.e., include all relevant information) spreadsheets and inventory document conform to acceptable style guidelines 21. Check the data relationships (comparability) and data processing steps (e.g., equations) in the spreadsheets 22. Check that spreadsheet input data and calculated data are clearly differentiated Title(s) and Date(s) of Inventory Spreadsheet(s)

Reporting and Documentation

The current IPCC reporting format (spreadsheet tables, aggregate tables) tries to provide a balance between the requirement of transparency and the level of effort that is realistically achievable by most inventory compilers. Good practice involves some additional effort to fulfil the transparency requirements completely. In particular, if Tier 3 is used, additional tables showing the activity data that are directly associated with the emission factors should be prepared.

Summarising the primary methods

As a more limited alternative, it is possible to use a Tier 1a method based on the Gamlen model (Table 7.5) to estimate emissions from the total bank of closed cell foam in a country. The following spreadsheet excerpt illustrates the method18 Figure 7.5 Example of spreadsheet calculation for Tier 1a method

Methodological issues 7621 Choice of method

As with Tier 1 methods adopted in both foams and refrigeration and air conditioning, it is possible to create a simple spreadsheet that accounts for the development of banks and the subsequent emissions from them. The following spreadsheet extract provides an example Example of spreadsheet calculation for Tier 1 method It is intended that such a spreadsheet facilitates the calculation for the Fire Protection application, supported, where necessary, by activity data from an appropriate globally or regionally derived dataset23.

Choice of activity data

To implement the Tier 3 method, information must be gathered at two levels. At the facility level, gas flows must be tracked correctly according to the Tier 3 method. At the national level, information from facilities (manufacturers, users, and disposers of equipment) must be collected, checked, summed, and if necessary, extrapolated to include estimates of emissions from facilities in the country that do not collect data. Guidance regarding the information to be tracked by facilities is provided in the descriptions of the Tier 3 method above. Gas consumption may be measured by weighing gas cylinders before and after filling or recovery operations or at the beginning and end of the year or by using flow meters (e.g., during equipment manufacturing). At the national level, trade associations for equipment manufacturers and utilities can be very helpful in disseminating knowledge to their members regarding the Tier 3 approach and in helping their members to track and report data...

Quality Assurance Quality Control

In all instances where site-specific emissions data are obtained through surveys, inventory compilers should compare the emission rates between sites (adjusting for relative size or capacity) to identify significant outliers. They should investigate any outliers to determine if the differences can be explained or if there is an error in the reported emissions. As noted in Section, national inventory compilers can facilitate both the collection and verification of information at the facility level by distributing emission tracking protocols that embody the Tier 3 approach. Electronic protocols such as spreadsheets are particularly useful, as they minimize opportunities for arithmetic error. The calculations included in these protocols (whether electronic or not) can then be checked after they are submitted.

Sample pointSample point

Adsorption to activated carbon is a function of diffusion rate. This means that the columns should be operated at a temperature at which the liquor approaches the viscosity of water but will not decompose or form too much color. If the process requires operation at elevated temperature, a jacketed tube should be used. The column temperature is controlled by circulating water of the required temperature through the jacket. This requires a thermostatic bath enabling accurate temperature control. When loading the column, care should be taken to avoid entrapping air in the carbon bed. Entrapped air can cause channeling during column operation, preventing complete contact of the process liquor with the carbon particles. In small columns, entrapped air can be avoided by pouring out the carbon in boiling water just before loading. Most of the excess water can be poured off, along with most of the fine carbon particles. About one quarter of the column should be filled with water before...

WARM a Tool for GHG Evaluation of Waste Management Strategies

WARM (WAste Reduction Model) was created by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to support solid waste managers and organizations in planning waste management strategies under climate aspect. It is available in a web based calculator format and as a Microsoft EXCEL spreadsheet (EPA, 2005a).

Choice of emission factors

As explained within Section, Choice of Method, a composite emission factor is required to complete a Tier 1 method. Since the sub-applications within the refrigeration and air conditioning application are relatively heterogeneous, the validity of any single composite emission factor must be in doubt unless it takes into consideration the particular mix of sub-applications in the country. It is therefore good practice to develop composite emission factors on the basis of research within the country. The over-arching default emissions factor of 15 percent of the bank annually is used in the example of spreadsheet calculation contained in the 2006 Guidelines CDROM attached to these Guidelines.

The Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions ISIS Model 851 Overview

Fluor Integrated Solutions Model

ISIS has a modular architecture as shown in Fig. 8.5 below. Input data is organized in various spreadsheets of an Excel Workbook. As shown in Fig. 8.5, the inputs are transmitted to the optimization part of the ISIS model, where they are used to solve the selected Business-as-Usual (BAU) and policy cases. Potential policy options may include cap-and-trade, emissions taxes, or emissions limits as emission reduction mechanisms. After solving, the results are post-processed to calculate values of various outputs of interest. The output data are exported to Excel spreadsheets for further analyses and graphical representations of selected results.

Protein Crop Options And Climate Change

A possible tool for assessing uses that are available for the non-protein fractions would be a kind of scorecard. An example for such a scorecard is given in Table 10.3 for an imaginary crop X, with 25 protein, 25 carbohydrates, 25 oil fat and 25 cellulose lignin. Please note that, although the scorecard is given here as a 2-dimensional table, a multidimensional, spreadsheet-based card is envisaged, allowing for easy calculation of economic values and environmental impacts.

Drought Exceptional Circumstances

Statistical techniques for the analysis of drought events based on historical rainfall records of individual stations using commonly available spreadsheet packages operating on desktop computers are suggested (Bedo, 1997). These analyses complement more sophisticated approaches available only to specialists. A series of Microsoft Excel macros, which analyze rainfall in several ways to test the meteorological criteria, are used. These macros provide three techniques of rainfall analysis to identify an exceptional circumstances event.

Domestic wastewater 6221 Choice of method

Policy Factors

Wastewater treatment system pathway usage often differs for rural and urban residents. Also, in developing countries, there are likely to be differences between urban high-income and urban low-income residents. Hence, a factor U is introduced to express each income group fraction. It is good practice to treat the three categories rural population, urban high income population, and urban low income population separately. It is suggested to use a spreadsheet, as shown in Table 6.5 below.

Methodological Approaches To Identify Key Categories

Approach 1 can readily be accomplished using a spreadsheet analysis. Tables 4.2 and 4.3 in the following sections illustrate the format of the analysis. Separate spreadsheets are suggested for the level and trend assessments because it is necessary to sort the results of the analysis according to two different columns. It is more difficult to track the process if the analyses are combined in the same table. In both tables, columns A through D are inputs of the national inventory data. Section 4.5 illustrates the application of the Approach 1 to the Finnish inventory. Table 4.2 presents a spreadsheet that can be used for the level assessment. An example of the use of the spreadsheet is given in Section 4.5. Table 4.2 presents a spreadsheet that can be used for the level assessment. An example of the use of the spreadsheet is given in Section 4.5. Spreadsheet for the Approach 1 analysis - Level Assessment Table 4.3 outlines a spreadsheet that can be used for the Approach 1 Trend...

Carbon Stored In Swds

The long-term stored carbon in SWDS is reported as an information item in the Waste sector. The reported value for waste derived from harvested wood products (paper and cardboard, wood and garden and park waste) is equal to the variable 1B, AChwp swds DC, i.e., the carbon stock change of HWP from domestic consumption disposed into SWDS of the reporting country used in Chapter 12, Harvested Wood Products, of the AFOLU Volume. This parameter as well as the annual CH4 emissions from disposal of HWP in the country can be estimated with the FOD model (see sheet HWP in the spreadsheet).

Bottomup Methodology To Assess Bioenergy Potentials

Examples Bio Energy

Historic changes will be derived from existing databases and studies. Future trends are analysed by means of scenario analysis, which allows examination of the impact that various parameters have. The various parameters are grouped and correlations are included in a spreadsheet tool summarised in Figure 9.1. These data were integrated into a spreadsheet tool wherein the projected demand for food and feed in 2050 is translated into yield-area combinations. A given demand for crops can be produced for different combinations of yield and area a small area with very productive land can produce the same amount of crops as a large area of low productive land. The spreadsheet includes Fco feed composition. Data on feed composition (feed, pasture and fodder biomass, residues, scavenging) are specific for each region, type of animal product and production system. The demand for feed from crops is added up to the demand for food crops and is included in the spreadsheet tool used to calculate...

Calculation Tools

The calculations of PCFs are usually simple and can be done using spreadsheet calculators. There are also numerous commercial tools to support the calculation of PCFs on the market 15 . Although these are less flexible, there are some advantages of using commercial tools

Outline of Tools

Situation analysis, develop objectives, and identify critical indicators. This system is based on an Excel workbook tool that walks practitioners through the steps in the process. A simpler version of this process can be found in Measures of Success,196 which uses visual conceptual models to help show the causal chains linking key factors in your situation analysis as a basis for setting objectives and selecting indicators.

The Survey

Construction such as property and commercial building located in the area of Kuala Lumpur (capital city of Malaysia) and Selangor. These areas were selected because many construction developers, who have projects throughout Malaysia, are based there. All construction development companies from these areas were approached when conducting the postal survey. The list of the companies was obtained from the Real Estate and Housing Developers' Association (REHDA). A total of 271 respondents were approached and 35 questionnaires were returned for analysis. The data gathered were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. Software called Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to analyze the data quantitatively. This software enabled the data to be transferred automatically from spreadsheet to graphic to present the data in a more attractive manner. The averaging statistical analysis was also used to calculate straightforward totals, percentages, and averages. Qualitative...

Skills Training

The training of agricultural meteorologists must address information gathering skills, as this will enable them to retrieve the latest information from various sources and include evaluating the sources and interpretation of the data (Gibbs, undated). These skills should include traditional library as well as networking skills and the ability to use contemporary technology. However, it is essential, with the availability of modern electronic technology, that agricultural meteorologists have computer skills at a level sufficient to allow them to search the Internet and download relevant information and data. At a minimum, basic computer literacy, spreadsheet and word processing skills are essential. In addition, they should also develop the necessary ability to surf the web and be able to discern the difference between information that is scientifically sound and correct and that which is poorly grounded. At least some agricultural meteorologist should acquire skills in Geographic...

Calculation Methods

The mean daily air temperatures are used to calculate the AT value. The calculations take account of thaw periods, and a new sludge application is not made until the previous layer has frozen completely. One day is then allowed for a new sludge application and cooling, and calculations with Equation 9.3 are repeated to again determine the freezing time. The procedure is repeated through the end of the winter season. A tabular summary is recommended for the data and calculation results. This procedure can be easily programmed for rapid calculations with a spreadsheet or desktop calculator.

Choice of method

(Section 3.2.3, Choice of Emission Factors and Parameters), and a simple spreadsheet model to assist countries in using the FOD method. The FOD method is briefly described in Section and in more detail in Annex 3A.1. A spreadsheet model has been developed by the IPCC to assist countries in implementing the FOD IPCC Spreadsheet for Estimating Methane Emissions from Solid Waste Disposal Sites (IPCC Waste Model) The IPCC Waste Model is described in more detail below and can be modified and used for all tiers. 1 See the attached spreadsheets in Excel format. < IPCC Waste Model.xls> . One key input in the model is the amount of degradable organic matter (DOCm) in waste disposed into SWDS. This is estimated based on information on disposal of different waste categories (municipal solid waste (MSW), sludge, industrial and other waste) and the different waste types material (food, paper, wood, textiles, etc.) included in these categories, or alternatively as mean DOC in bulk waste...

Hydrologic modelling

A new user interface was developed for the BRANCH code, where all inputs and outputs are included in a single spreadsheet file (Microsoft Excel). A new module was written to allow for hydrograph generation and to create boundary value data series in any time increments to simulate the hydrograph wave form based on monthly values. Finally, software was developed, which allows mapping of the channel network into a raster grid as defined by the MODFLOW grid, divides the channel into segments, and uses BRANCH output to update the MODFLOW boundary value file for specified-head boundary schedules for any number of cells. The new version of BRANCH was verified successfully with USGS sample data.

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