UKClimate Scenarios

In the UK high-resolution climate scenarios are developed, which specifically are oriented on weather extremes and the impacts on the urban environment. The scenarios were developed in 2002 and take into account different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. For every climate variable the scenarios are developed for 2020,2050 and 2080 (Fig. 1.19). UKCIP02 (Hulme et al., 2002) describes the recorded changes like the general warming or the increasing winter precipitation.

Beside historical recordings the scenarios describe future developments as well. UKCIP02 states that the average temperature in 2050 (period 2031-2060) 1-3°C will have risen. It is expected that more dry summers will occur and more wet winters also. UKCIP will present new scenarios by the end of 2008. The first part of the research (recent trends) is been published recently [Jenkins, et al., 2007]. It gives insight in the recent changes for several climate variables (mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, days of air frost, precipitation, days of rain, sea level pressure, wind-speed and relative humidity). In general mean temperature has increased (Fig. 1.20), the summers become drier and the winters wetter (Fig. 1.21), while the sea level pressure increases (Fig. 1.22) over the last decennia.

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