Implementation Through Work Programmes

The Plan is being implemented through Work Programmes. The 1st Work Programme deals with three key sectors that are expected to have very important

Fig. 1.31 Climate change affecting mountain areas (Source: Centro de Publicaciones, 2008)

Fig. 1.31 Climate change affecting mountain areas (Source: Centro de Publicaciones, 2008)

outcomes for subsequently feeding spatial plans and the adaptation strategies within sectors.

1.4.2.1 Coastal Areas

The main problem in coastal zones is the changing dynamics near and around the coast, like the rise of the sea level. The major impacts are the decline of deltas and beaches (Fig. 1.33), while rocky coasts are not really at risk. If a rise of sea level is calculated of 50 centimetres most low lying coasts are at risk: the Ebro delta and the Llobregat, Manga del Marmenor, lagoons in the Cabo de Gate and the gulf of Cadiz and Doñana. Another region at risk is Cantábrico oriental, which contains 40% of the beaches has to deal with flood risk.

1.4.2.2 Water Resources

In Spain climate change means the rise of temperatures and a decrease of precipitation. This implies that the availability of water decreases. A temperature rise of 1°C and decrease of 5% precipitation means a decrease between 5 and 14% water

availability by 2030. A further decrease of 20-22% by the end of the century is expected. The water availability decreases by almost 50% in arid and semi-arid areas, which contain around 30% of the national territory. The hydrological variability increases in the Atlantic basins, while in the Mediterranean and the interior the water availability is predicted to become very irregular (Fig. 1.34).

1.4.2.3 Biodiversity

The terrestrial water system will be affected by climate change. Permanent water will change into seasonal carrying water bodies and some may even disappear. Lakes, lagoons, rivers and brooks in the mountainous areas will be most threatened as well as coastal waters, which are dependent on supply from underground aquifers or seepage. Biodiversiy of these systems will decrease and their biochemical cycles will change. Ecological reserves, like the swamps of Donanaor Ebro-delta will undergo changes, lose their characteristics and decrease their ecological richness. The possibilities of these areas to adapt are limited.

Fig. 1.33 Beaches under threat (Source: Centro de Publicaciones, 2008)

Fig. 1.33 Beaches under threat (Source: Centro de Publicaciones, 2008)

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Referencia

Escenario 2

■ Escenario 4

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Proyecciones del impacto del cambio climático sobre bs recursos hidricos: reducción porcentual de ia escorrentia en las cuencas según distimos escenarios

Fig. 1.34 Water availability around the country in different scenarios (Source: Centro de Publicaciones, 2008)

The terrestrial ecosystems differ from their geographical position. The Atlantic terrestrial systems, limited by temperature, might show an increased productivity, while the productivity in the Mediterranean systems, limited by water, decreases. The phenology and interaction between species will undergo changes, from migrations from the highlands to local extensions. Plagues and invasive species will profit from changing circumstances. Those ecosystems that are at the boundary of geographical regions, such as highlands or dry rock formations, suffer the most from climate change.

The biodiversity of vegetations is affected by warming and decrease of availability of water leading to a so-called 'Mediterranesation' of the northern parts of the Iberic mainland as well as drying out and possible desertification of the southern parts. Direct influences are caused by changes in the soil and groundlevel; the regularity of wood-fires and the rise of the sealevel. This causes a loss of biodiversity and local extinctions outnumber recolonisation. The most vulnerable vegetation is located in the highlands, the trees and bushes, which are vulnerable for droughts, forests in the south and southeast and the coastal vegetation.

Finally, the biodiversity of animals is changing. Phenology and populations are under threat and are deregulated. Fractures in ecosystems will increase and interactions, like predator-prey, plagues, competition or impregnation, between species are disrupted. Another effect is the shift between water and land species as well as the intensity of parasites and increase of invasive species. Vulnerability is highest for those species, which are especially under threat, like those living in the highlands.

Spain is an important area for the breeding population of the little bustard. According the simulation (Huntley, et al., 2007) the majority of current breeding places will be disappeared in 2100 (Fig. 1.35).

furrts. A ofluiopc&i Siwd/ng ßrdz flJFSÎMfettW M»

furrts. A ofluiopc&i Siwd/ng ßrdz flJFSÎMfettW M»

Fig. 1.35 Current and modelled dispersion in 2100 of the Little bustard (tetrax tetrax) (Source: Huntley, et al., (2007))

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