The 37 locations

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Temperatures are expected to increase 2.5 to 5.1oC with a mean increase of 4.4oC for all 37 locations. The biggest increase of 5.1oC is over Hafar Al-Batin and the warmest mean temperature is expected over Obailah in the Empty Quarter with average daily temperature of 35.7oC. There are 15 locations in which the mean increase in temperature equals or greater than 4.8oC. The average precipitation change for the selected locations is an increase of 39%, distributed in the range -0.8%for Ar'ar to111.1% for Dhahran. From the 37 locations, there are 32 locations with a percentage increase of more than 20%, and 11 locations have a percentage increase of more than 50%. The average change of surface wind speeds is -4.4% with a maximum change of 25% over Sharoura and a minimum change of -64% at Al-Ahsa. There are 14 locations with a positive change in surface wind speeds, and only 9 locations with a change less than 10%. The average change of surface evaporation is 23.1% with a maximum change of 69.5% over Al-Ahsa and a minimum change of -8.3% over Al Wejh. There are 29 locations with a positive change in surface evaporation, and only 9 locations with a change less than 5%. The average change of soil water balance is 100.9%with a maximum change of 900% over Turaif and a minimum change of -2100%over Al-Ahsa. There are 26 locations with a positive change in the soil water balance, and only 7 locations with a change more than 300%.

The averages of all six regions indicate an increase in temperature, precipitation, evaporation, wind speeds, runoff, and soil water balance (Table 33.9). Daily average temperature is projected to increase by 4.2oC which is 16.5% of the historical value. An increase of 30.2% in precipitation is projected for the future which is an increase of 37.7 millimeters per year (mm/year). The evaporation increase is only 5.6% (20.8 mm/year) which gives an advantageous increase in soil water balance (P-E) by 3.0% or 6.2 mm/year. Runoff is projected to increase by 225.7% (1.1 mm/year). Only a slight increase of 0.01 m/s in wind speeds is projected (0.2%).

Table 33.9 The climate fields averaged over all six regions.

Climate field

A2 Scenario

Historical

A2 Change

A2 Percentage

Temperature(oC)

29.891

25.676

4.216

16.533

Wind speed(m/s)

156.146

118.408

37.739

30.236

Precipitation(mm/day)

341.32

320.53

20.789

5.615

Evaporation(mm/day)

4.274

4.264

0.01

0.222

Runoffmm/day)

1.643

0.497

1.147

225.72

P -E(mm/day)

-195.898

-202.122

6.225

3.043

We notice much wider variations of climate changes with respect to the historical values when considering the 37 locations, instead of the selected 6 regions of Saudi Arabia. The reason for this is that a particular region will require a weighted area mean while a particular location represents a single point on an area. The accuracy in an area is better than in a single location which is related to the model resolution. An increase of 4.2oC will increase the energy demand and water irrigations. An increase of more than 30% of precipitation can translate to more flash floods and land erosions in western Saudi Arabia. Sensitivity for soil water balance indicates that future under A2 scenario will be slightly increased in the average (3%) but the northern region will suffer a decrease by 2.6% (Figs. 33.3 and 33.4).

Fig. 33.3 The changes in soil water balance for each region in percentages and in mm/day.

■ Climate Change

♦ Percentage

Localized Changes in Soil Water Balance

Localized Changes in Soil Water Balance

-100

ZSCDLUZdl

-100

Fig. 33.4 The changes in soil water balance for each location in percentages and in mm/day.

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