Results and Discussion

The CSLR predictions are a complex and multi-faceted issue. Response to this issue requires actions on a variety of fronts and at many levels of government. Only in combination will these semi-independent steps be enough to change the trajectory of climate change, allow societies to adapt to the unavoidable changes, and decrease climate change impacts. The Caspian Sea levels will continue to rise for many centuries and forward-thinking decision-makers will have the ability to design proactive response strategies that will allow for adaptation to those changes. The concepts of resilience provide a framework for analyzing not only potential sea level rise impacts but also policy response options. The effort to determine effective policy response options is aided by the use of current mapping technology. High-resolution data sources provide a powerful and useful tool with which to respond to the CSLR. Computing resources allow for the efficient generation of a variety of relative CSLR scenarios based on the local realities of vertical land movement and topography. The choice of scenarios can build community understanding and highlight areas of vulnerability. The availability of high-resolution data allows for the creation of non-catastrophic scenarios that can be used to inform local decisions and initiate consideration of legal and regulatory opportunities for response.

The greatest effect of CSLR will be the increased risk of inundation around the estuary, the lower rivers, and the Anzali Lagoon in the Guilan Province. The Anzali Lagoon is associated with the greater frequency of extreme tidal water levels. For example, the estimated rise in the Caspian Sea levels by 2016 would lead to changes in water levels, the protection ability provided, and ecological functions of the Anzali Lagoon. The existing protection provided by minimum ground and floor levels will also be progressively reduced.

An alternative way of assessing the effects of the CSLR is to compare the areas at risk for inundation in similar-sized events with and without CSLR. The indicative inundation areas for a 1% (10-year return period) tidal event associated with 1.20 m SLR estimated that an additional 32,440 km2 mostly natural resource and paddy fields of land within the city could be potentially at risk by this magnitude event by 2016. In monetary terms, the costs of the additional assets at risk are significant, being estimated at approximately $3.2 billion. This represents approximately a 223% increase from the current value of assets at risk in this size event.

The CSLR will not be experienced as the simple changes in inundation elevation depicted in the previous section. It will be experienced through increased flooding as formerly extreme events become relatively less extreme and more frequent. In an attempt to describe those changes, this study creates floodplain maps for the Anzali Lagoon District in the north of Iran. (a) Current sea level and associated floodplain, (b) 0.20 m of Caspian Sea level rise and new floodplain, (c) 0.40 m of Caspian Sea level rise and new floodplain, (d) 0.6 m of Caspian Sea level rise and new floodplain, (e) 0.80 m of Caspian Sea level rise and new floodplain, (f) 1 m of Caspian Sea level rise and new floodplain, and (g) 1.20 m of Caspian Sea level rise and new floodplain (Fig. 32.3).

The maps created in this study are designed to identify areas of potential vulnerability. They should not be used for specific site planning, construction decisions, or high precision planning. The maps are a valuable aid to local decision-makers and planners in the development of non-catastrophic sea level rise response options. The maps colors showed the new shoreline under each of the CSLR scenario. Initially the heavily armored shoreline limits the extent of the floodplain (a). A 0.20 m increase in the Caspian Sea level creates a commensurate 0.20 m increase in the base flood elevation (b). As the Caspian Sea levels increase, the floodplain expands, as does the area potentially vulnerable to large storms and major flood events. With a 0.60 m rise in the Caspian Sea level, the new flood zone is equivalent to the 1 m inundation scenario. In each case, infrastructure within the new flood zone is at risk to impacts from large storm events.

Experts at Anzali Lagoon present maps of likely inundation as a result of SLR of 0.20 m by 2009 and 1.20 m by 2016 which show that the areas between Anzali Lagoon and village and cities could be affected.

In summary, the Caspian Sea levels will continue to rise for many centuries and forward-thinking decision-makers will have the ability to design proactive response strategies that will allow for adaptation to those changes. The concepts of resilience provide a framework for analyzing not only potential sea level rise impacts but also policy response options. The effort to determine effective policy response options is aided by the use of current mapping technology. High-resolution data sources provide a powerful and useful tool with which to respond to the CSLR. Computing resources allow for the efficient generation of a variety of relative CSLR scenarios based on the local realities of vertical land movement and to pography. The choice of scenarios can build community understanding and highlight areas of vulnerability. The availability of high-resolution data allows for the creation of non-catastrophic scenarios that can be used to inform local decisions and initiate consideration of legal and regulatory opportunities for response.

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Getting Started With Solar

Getting Started With Solar

Do we really want the one thing that gives us its resources unconditionally to suffer even more than it is suffering now? Nature, is a part of our being from the earliest human days. We respect Nature and it gives us its bounty, but in the recent past greedy money hungry corporations have made us all so destructive, so wasteful.

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