High air pollution level has existed in Erzurum during winter seasons. Maximum SO2 and TSP concentrations especially occur in the colder months (December, January, and February) in the city. These high SO2 and TSP values were due to the lower temperature and lower winds. The results from this study show that there are moderate relationships between the meteorological parameters, SO2, and TSP in Erzurum within the terms statistically analyzed. The wind speed, temperature, and relative humidity are moderately correlated with SO2 between 1995 and 1997. The wind speed and temperature are moderately correlated with TSP. The relative humidity is also weakly correlated with TSP. In order to predict the SO2 and TSP concentrations with regard to meteorological parameters and previous day's pollutant concentration, a statistical model was developed. The correlations between previous day's TSP and SO2 concentrations and actual TSP and SO2 concentrations were found as 0.42 and 0.77, respectively. The statistical model of SO2 and TSP including meteorological parameters and previous day's pollutant concentrations gave R2 of 0.71 and 0.43, respectively.

Since increasing population, fuel quality change, and requested modifications in urbanization are insufficient in Erzurum city, the statistical model is able to predict well the next several days of SO2 pollution whenever the days of meteorological parameter values are supplied.


A constant

B coefficient

E error

R2 correlation/determination coefficient

SO2 Sulfur dioxide (|ig/m3)

TSP Total suspended material (|g/m3)


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