Basic Analysis

The outputs of the experiments for the concerned climate fields are organized in three groups: historical, present, and future simulations. A set of equations adopted after Loaiciga (2007) was used to calculate the resultant reading for the future under the IPCC scenario A2. The significant contribution of carbon dioxide is translated in the equations referring to future simulation with the doubling of the present amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Equation 33.1 gives the average daily temperature at the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) by adding the current average daily temperature (historical value) to the difference between future (2071-2100) and present (1961-1990) simulations for average daily temperature. Equation 33.3 gives the average daily precipitation at the end of the 21st century by multiplying the current average daily precipitation (historical value) by the ratio of future (2071-2100) average daily precipitation over the present (19611990) average daily precipitation. The rest of the equations (Eqs. (33.2), (33.433.6)) follows similar concepts.

^Scenario ^Historical + {Tf 2xCO2 T41xCO2 ) ^Scenario = ^Historical + (Wf 2xCO2 — W41xCO2 )

Scenario Historical '

Scenario Historical '

1 f2xCO2

y 1 b1xCO2 y

y1^b1xCO2 y

f 2xCO2

blxCO.

Scenario

Historical

o blxCO

In these equations, T, W, P, E, (P—E), and Q respectively represent temperatures in degrees Celsius, wind speeds in meters per second, total precipitation, surface evaporation in millimeters per day, the resultant of subtraction of surface evaporation from total precipitation in millimeters per day, and the mean runoff in millimeters per day. The subscript f) represents future simulation, and the subscript (b) represents the baseline simulation.

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