Socioeconomic data and other scenarios

Extensive socio-economic data are required for the IMPACT-WATER modelling framework. The information is drawn from highly disparate databases and requires an interdisciplinary and international collaboration of professionals in agronomy, economics, engineering and public policy. Table 12.3 describes the major data and their sources, which are classified into six classes: water supply infrastructure, hydrology, agronomy, crop production and non-irrigation water demand and water policies. The data have been prepared for river basins (in China, India and the USA) and countries and regions. Data are calibrated for the base year and are then determined by the model for future years (including irrigated and rain-fed crop area and yield, and crop area and yield reduction from water shortages). As indicated above and in Table 12.3, some data came directly from other sources, some are treated based on other sources, and some are estimated from related literature.

GIS and other methods are used to treat these parameters. Some data are given in spatial units smaller than the hydrologic units (such as for China, the USA and districts in India), and the GIS program is applied to overlay the data at the smaller scales. Many other intermediate programs were developed to estimate the required data or transfer the original data to the format required by the models. Data required for agricultural modelling by IMPACT are described in Rosegrant et al. (2001).

Table 12.3. Major sources of data used as input for the IMPACT-WATER model.

Category

Details

Sources

Infrastructure

Reservoir storage

ICOLD (1998)

Withdrawal capacity

WRI (2000); Gleick (1993)

Groundwater pumping capacity

WRI (2000)

Water distribution, use and

Scenario Development Panel,

recycling situation

World Water Vision

Hydrology

Watershed delineation

WRI

Precipitation

Basin Runoff Model

Potential evapotranspiration

Basin Runoff Model

Runoff

Basin Runoff Model

Groundwater recharge

WRI (2000); Gleick (1999)

Committed flow

Authors' assessments

Water pollution (salinity)

Authors' assessments

Agronomy

Crop growth stages

Rice provided by FAO; wheat

and maize by CIMMYT; and

other crops by USDA

Crop evapotranspiration

FAO (1998); Doorenbos and

coefficients (kc)

Kassam (1977)

Yield-water response

FAO (1998); Doorenbos and

coefficient (ky)

Pruitt (1979)

Crop

Irrigated and rainfed area

FAO (1999); Cai (1999)

production

(baseline): actual harvested

and potential

Irrigated and rainfed yield

GAEZ model

(baseline): actual and potential

Non-irrigation

Industry

Shiklomanov (1999) for the

water

Scenario Development Panel,

demand

World Water Vision

Domestic

ShikIomanov (1999) for the

Scenario Development Panel,

World Water Vision

Livestock

Mancl (1994); Beckett and Oltjen

(1993); FAO (1986)

Water

Committed flows

Authors' assessments

policies

Water demand growth

Authors' assessments

International water sharing

Authors' assessments based on

agreements

WRI (2000)

Investment

Authors' assessments

Source: Compiled by authors.

CIMMYT, the International Wheat and Maize Improvement Center; FAO, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; ICOLD, International Commission on Large Dams; WRI, World Resources Institute; USDA, the United States Department of Agriculture.

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