Performance of Adaptation Strategies Environmental AS

The effects of the environmental AS can be illustrated by the set of indicators and the effects matrix (see Table 5.10): water quality would slightly improve as compared to business as usual, but not entirely because of still high levels of pollution resulting from agriculture. Area of deserts, i.e. rangeland and crop land turned into wasteland, would increase less dramatically than under business as usual. The average outflow to Aral would increase from 4.0 X 106 km3 to 8.3 X 106 km3 under the A2 scenario, and from 4.4 X 106 km3 to 10.1 X 106 km3 under the B2 scenario. Crop production would increase due to measures F1 and F2, while meat and milk production would be higher due to the measures preventing desertification (E2). Number of years with unmet

Table 5.10. Assessment/impact matrix for the adaptation strategies under CC scenario A2, time slice 2070-2099.

20702099 Adaptation strategy

Measured 1961- business -

Indicator in 1990 as usual 2099 E 2099 F 2099 I 2099 M

Environment

Ha deserts (x106)

+ + +/---

115,000

+++

++

++

+++

++

Longitudinal freedom

Number

29

34

34

35

37

35

Fertilizer, PCB, NaCl

+ + +/---

+

++

+

+++

++

++

Radioactive pollution

+ or -

-

+

-

+

-

-

Outflow to Aral Sea

km3

5.4

4.0

8.3

10.1

7.7

20.9

No. years with flood risk

Number

350

885

--

+ /-

+

+/-

Food

Tonnes of cotton (x106)

Number

2.240

2.370

2.520

2.820

2.430

2.570

Tonnes of wheat (x106)

Number

2.660

3.890

3.970

5.100

4.020

4.120

Tonnes of potatoes (x106)

Number

1.960

5.900

6.030

7.600

6.370

6.980

Tonnes of meat (x106)

Number

0.520

1.180

1.240

1.430

1.300

1.380

Tonnes of milk(x106)

Number

1.680

2.540

2.590

3.310

2780

3.030

Average farm income

US$/year

1,500

2,950

3,170

4,060

3,380

3,890

No. years with unmet

demand

Number

7

18

9

5

12

6

Industry

No. of dams

Number

25

30

30

30

33

32

Hydropower

(MW)

60,950

+

+ +

+

+++

++

Relative costs

8-14

9-15

16-19

24-32

agricultural demands will drop from 18 to 9 under the A2 scenario and from 12 to 6 under B2. Farmers' income is expected to increase insignificantly compared to business as usual. Hydropower production would be somewhat higher than under business as usual due to high production in winter. All the positive effects will be more remarkable under the B2 scenario than under A2. Relative costs of environmental strategy are 8-14, i.e. the least expensive in relation to other adaptation strategies considered below.

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