Mixed AS

Mixed adaptation strategy may be assessed as second to most satisfying in meeting the interests of the three main water users in the basin, i.e. it would help in improving water quality, though less effectively than the Environmental strategy; reducing risks of radioactive contamination; preventing desertification and increasing outflow to the Aral Sea, compared to other strategies to 23.4X 106 km3 under climate change scenario A2 and 20.9X 106 km3 under scenario B2. The Mixed strategy would provide second to maximum, i.e. to that under Food AS, increases in crop, milk and meat production and in average farm income and raise the level of food security in terms of meeting water demands for agriculture (6 and 4 years of unmet demands for scenarios A2 and B2 correspondingly). Hydropower production would also be higher under this strategy than under business as usual, second to best, i.e. that under Industrial AS. However, the relative costs of this strategy are the highest among all the adaptation strategies under consideration, since it combines most costly measures of all other strategies: thus, relative cost of Mixed strategy would reach 24-32 under scenario A2 and 28-36 under scenario B2. This strategy is also expected to be more effective under the B2 climate change scenario compared with A2.

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