Industrial AS

The assessment of the industrial strategy shows a moderate increase of water quality. The expected outflow to the Aral Sea slightly differs from that under business as usual. The industrial adaptation strategy would achieve a meagre amount of 7.7 X 106 km3 under climate change scenario A2 and 9.7 X 106 km3 under scenario B2, and there would be no change in the rates of desertification. This strategy would make crop production, particularly wheat and potatoes, and meat and milk production increase, and consequently the average farm income would slightly increase compared to business as usual. Level of food insecurity would remain rather high: the number of years with unmet demands for agriculture would not decrease drastically: it would be 12 instead of 18 years for scenario A2, and 9 instead of 12 years for scenario B2. It should be kept in mind that this effect would be reached not by increasing the amount of water available for agriculture, but by decreasing agricultural demands. Hydropower production would be significantly higher than under business as usual. The costs of the Industrial adaptation strategy are high in comparison with Food and Environmental AS, reaching 16-19 points for scenario A2 and 20-23 for scenario B2.

0 0

Post a comment