Global GCMbased Scenarios

The IPCC published a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) in 2000 (New et al., 2000; see Chapter 2). SRES describes a new set of emissions scenarios used in the Third Assessment Report. The SRES scenarios have been constructed to explore future developments in the global environment with special reference to the production of greenhouse gases and aerosol precursor emissions. The SRES scenarios were used as atmospheric forcing functions for a suite of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that provide simulations of future climatic variables. The GCMs used in this analysis to provide precipitation and temperature for climate change scenarios include Max Planck Institute Model ECHAM4 for B2 2020, B2 2080, Hadley Center Model HadCM3 for A1 2020, A1 2080, B2 2020, and B2 2080. Table 12.1 shows the global mean temperatures for both GCM outputs for the years 2000-2100.

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