Conclusions

There are only two general conclusions that can be drawn from the results in Tables 12.4 and 12.5.

1. Regional cereal prices decrease under climate change. The results show that for all basins the price of cereals in 2025 goes down due to the favourable climatic conditions and CO2 fertilization in some of the ADAPT basins. This leads to reduced world market prices, which affects regional prices.

2. Regional cereal demand increases under climate change. In most cases regional cereal demand increased, with the Rhine and Syr Darya being the exceptions.

The second conclusion above is quite interesting. Since many ADAPT regions experience reduction in production, cereal production goes down in all cases for the Volta, Zayandeh Rud, Walawe and Mekong Basins. The increase in demand is due to reduction in regional prices, caused by an increase in global production and a reduction in world market prices. Therefore, farmer incomes may be decreased by climate change, while consumers benefit from the lower prices, and the risk of hunger is reduced.

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