Climate variability

GCM-based climate scenarios only provide estimates of mean monthly changes. How do changes in climate variability (such as an ENSO event) affect food production, prices and demand? Two climate variability scenarios were developed and run through the IMPACT-WATER model and results are presented below. Figure 12.7 shows the impact of increased and decreased ENSO events on global food demand. While halving ENSO has little effect, doubling ENSOs has appreciable effects. Finally, the impact of the variability scenarios on a range of model variables shows that developing regions are impacted more than developed regions.

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Max Planck Max Planck Hadley A1 Hadley A1 Hadley B2 Hadley B2 Half ENSO Double B2 2020 B2 2080 2020 2080 2020 2080 years ENSO Years

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Fig. 12.8. Effects of climate change and variability on global food demand.

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Max Planck Max Planck Hadley A1 Hadley A1 Hadley B2 Hadley B2 Half ENSO Double B2 2020 B2 2080 2020 2080 2020 2080 years ENSO Years

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Fig. 12.9. Effects of climate change and variability on world market prices.

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