Adaptation Strategies

The development of future adaptation measures in the Syr Darya Basin is to some degree enhanced by analysing the adaptation and adjustment patterns of riparian country economies over recent decades (Sarsembekov, 2000; Dukhovniy, 2001; Tuzova, 2001). Adaptation measures (Table 5.7) can be divided into three categories (E, F, I) according to a water user that is supposed to get most benefit from introducing a measure. E stands for environment, F for food production, I for industry. To estimate the efficiency and relative costs of various adaptation measures (Table 5.7), expert and farmer interviews were used. In order to compare relative costs of the adaptation strategies, we introduced five cost categories. Category 0 was assigned to the measures that involve virtually no cost and are related just to the policies, e.g. open reservoir in winter or change crop pattern. Cost categories 1 and 2 were assigned to relatively inexpensive measures, i.e. introduce water pricing, employ desalinization techniques, increase water productivity, prevent desertification. Categories 3 and 4 were assigned to engineering measures, which are money-, time- and labour-consuming and require major investment, as in the construction of dykes and the reconstruction of irrigation networks. Dam and hydropower plant construction for large water reservoirs was placed under category 4. Estimate of relative costs of an adaptation strategy was made as a sum of the cost categories for each measure, whereas construction of each dam was considered as a separate measure, i.e. relative costs of the construction of three new dams were estimated as 12 (3 X 4).

An adaptation strategy is defined as a set of adaptation measures. Four adaptation strategies were developed, namely environmental (E), food (F) and industrial (I) strategies, representing the best coping mechanisms for each of three main water users in the basin for minimizing the negative impacts of CC/CV and socioeconomic stressors. A mixed adaptation strategy (M) was developed in an attempt to balance the interests of those users. Table 5.8 shows the four adaptation strategies (AS), each comprising different measures. The choice of measures for adaptation strategies was done through expert judgement and fine-tuned with the application of the WEAP model (WEAP, 2002).

0 0

Post a comment