Adaptation Strategies

Possible adaptation measures and expected qualitative effects on food production and environment in the MRB are shown in Table 8.5. There are many measures that have positive and significant effects on either food production or environment, or both, but several effects are unknown, in particular on the environment.

Two major adaptation strategies are analysed for the MRB. They will be compared to a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario where we expect no major changes in climate conditions. However, under BAU, food production will be further developed to meet the increased demand due to population growth. Also, a scenario with climate change (CC) will be analysed, but still without taking specific adaptations. Table 8.6 provides an overview of all scenarios and strategies.

Adaptation strategy 1 'CC-Agri' is developed to enhance food security under climate change. Specific measures under this strategy are to intensify crops, because most land suitable for agriculture has been exploited. The agricultural area in the sub-basins is unchanged under this strategy. It is expected that food demand will increase proportionally with population number during 2010-2039 and 2070-2099. Values in the middle years, 2025 and 2085, represent the situation in each period. Another measure is to expand the current crop calendar from 1 June/30 September to 1 June/31 December in 2010-2039 and 1June/31January in 2070-2099. More irrigation water is needed for such expansion of crop season, i.e. the stream flow in the low flow season will be affected.

Adaptation strategy 2 'CC-Agri-For' focuses on enhancing environmental quality under CC and proposes to implement large-scale reforestation activities to alleviate impacts from floods and soil erosion. The shrub land (17.7% of basin area) is assumed to be fully covered by mixed forest.

Table 8.5. Possible adaptation measures for food production and environmental protection in the MRB.

Expected effects on Food

Adaptation measures production Environment

Improve water retention capacity of agricultural land

P, S

P, I

and forest watersheds

Improve farming and irrigation techniques at field scale

P, S

U, I

Improve irrigation management at sub-basin scale

P, S

P, S

Use storage capacity of natural water bodies

P, S

P, S

Increase irrigation development and focusing on

P, S

U, I

irrigation in multi-purpose projects

Improve livelihood of food-producing farmers by

P, S

U, I

socio-economic interventions such as price

management, extension services, marketing, etc.

Integration between water resource development in

P, S

P, S

LMB with that in Upper MRB

Reforestation on shrub land

P, I

P, S

Manage salinity intrusion in the delta

P, S

P, S

Preserve the productivity of the aquatic ecosystem

U, I

P, S

Diversify cropping patterns

N, S

P, S

Manage and mitigate damage from floods

P, I

P, S

Increase hydropower development

P, I

N, S

Increase usage of navigation for trade

P, I

U, I

P, positive; N, negative; U, unknown; S, significant; I, insignificant.

P, positive; N, negative; U, unknown; S, significant; I, insignificant.

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