Adaptation at global scale

This study addresses two types of spontaneous adaptation to climate change: agronomic and economic. These adaptation types will be manifested in irrigated and rain-fed areas, production, yields and producer prices as well as consumer food demand and international trade and resulting world market prices of crop commodities. The global adaptations can be briefly described as:

1. Agronomic: The GAEZ analysis for climate change adjusts the planting dates of each crop in each grid cell to maximize the potential yield based on the temperature regime from each GCM scenario.

2. Economic: With the change in precipitation, consumptive use and water supply due to climate change, the 'crop per drop' will change. In economic terms, the marginal value of water to irrigated crops will change. The food model will then allocate the available water to the crops based on the higher marginal return amongst the crops, including the impacts on rain-fed yields. The marginal value is determined not only by the supply side but also by the demand for these crops. The micro-economic assumption of market clearing leads to the model 'adapting' the crop production, imports and exports to balance food demand at each region and globally. This type of market adaptation to climate change is known as 'autonomous' adaptation.

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