Indicators

The generic methodology applied here allows for quantifying food and environmentally related impacts under climate change. Based on these impacts, stakeholders are able to develop and evaluate different adaptation strategies to alleviate negative impacts of climate change (OECD, 1994 Aerts et al., 2003). In the iterative approach, climate change scenarios are used as input to simulation models in order to quantify the impacts of climate change on the water resources system of a river basin and,...

Introduction

Research shows that changes in water quality and water quantity may affect sustain-ability of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. For centuries, natural conditions in rivers have been affected and human activity has reduced the capacity of water resources to support ecosystems and biodiversity (Covich et al., 1997 Poff et al., 2002). Ecosystems, however, have an important role in the hydrological cycle, as they have natural cleaning capacity and reduce the concentration of many (organic)...

Socioeconomic and institutional characteristics

Exressed Traits Population

Poverty remains a problem in Sri Lanka, especially in the rural areas. While average GDP per capita for Sri Lanka was US 850 in 2000, it is estimated that this was about US 600 for Walawe. However, the main part of this GDP originates from subsistence Fig. 10.2. Population growth and distribution between rural and urban areas. (Source United Nations Population Division, Fig. 10.2. Population growth and distribution between rural and urban areas. (Source United Nations Population Division,...

Impacts from Climate Change Hydrology

The impacts of climate change on general basin hydrology have been simulated using the SFM hydrological model (Denisov et al., 2002). Since the changes in temperature and precipitation for the time slice 2010-2039 are virtually the same under both the A2 and B2 scenarios, there is nearly no difference between SFM outputs under A2 and B2 scenarios. For 2010-2039, SFM runs do not give any significant change for the inter-annual runoff distribution. However, there is a pronounced tendency that is...

References

Alcamo,J., Henrichs, T. and Roesch, T. (2000) World Water in 2025 - Global Modeling and Scenario Analysis for the World Water Commission on Water for the 21st Century. Kassel World Water Series 2. University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany. CSCDGC (2002) Plant growth data. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change in Tempe, Arizona. Available at http www.co2science.org Cosgrove, WJ. and Rijsberman, F.R. (2000) World Water Vision Making Water Everybody's Business. Earthscan, London....

Environmental Adaptation Measures

The Syr Darya and Rhine Basins are used for demonstrating the AMR framework for evaluating adaptation strategies on the basis of environmental indicators (see Chapter 1). The main environmental issues and policy goals of the basins are briefly described and expressed in terms of indicators. This information is based on the reports of the basin studies conducted during the ADAPT project. For the Syr Darya, the largest environmental problems correlate with the main activity in the basin,...

Adaptation for Regional Water Management

Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands 2FutureWater, Arnhem, The Netherlands Dealing with climate change and climate variability is generally considered to be one of the largest challenges for the coming decades, on all geographical scales, across all economic sectors. Water managers see themselves confronted with a continuous stream of increasingly credible scientific information on the potential magnitude of climate change and climate...

Global water resources and ecosystems

Mapa Mundi Vectorial

In Fig. 4.1, the long-term average mean annual runoff (MAR) of rivers is shown. This is calculated using a global runoff model (Smakhtin, VU., Revenga, C. and Doll, P, unpublished). Between regions there is a large difference in runoff. The dark areas show high runoff and the light areas low runoff. As can be expected, high yearly runoff occurs in the tropics and the yearly runoff in the desert regions is very low. The centre of North America, Australia and central Asia are places in the world...

Climate Change Projections

Meteorological conditions, such as temperatures and rainfall, have a direct impact on water resources in the basin. Looking at trends in the past can be useful as a first indicator of what possible consequences climate change might have on water resources and, consequently, on agriculture, environment and domestic and industrial water use (Morrison et al., 2000). As was pointed out earlier, most of the water resources in the basin originate from upper sub-basins (mainly Plasjan sub-basin)....

Projections for the future

Seckler et al. (1999) estimates that by 2025 cereal production will have to increase by 38 to meet world food demands. The World Water Vision, an outcome of the Second World Water Forum in The Hague in 2000, estimated a similar increase of 40 based on various projections and modelling exercises. These figures are based on an econometric model showing that grain production will increase about 2 per year for the 2000-2020 period (Koyama, 1998). Following UN mid-range population estimates of 8.9...

Evaluation of Impacts and Adaptation

The impact of climate change and associated other drivers without adaptation can be considered as the 'business as usual' adaptation strategy. Using the aforementioned drivers and indicators, the simulation models were applied to calculate indicator values. The status of the basin will be evaluated separately for the selected periods and climate change scenarios. According to the present water allocation policies, domestic and industrial demands have first and second priority, respectively. The...