Table of Contents

Preface ix

1. A Global Perspective on Climate Change 1

2. Current Understanding of Environmental and Water Resource Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean 15

E. Ozsoy

3. An Outlook on the European Gas Market 33

J. Kjarstad, F. Johnsson

4. Sequestration - The Underground Storage of Carbon Dioxide 61

5. Holloway

5. Climate Change and Energy Pathways for the Mediterranean 89

O. Schafer

6. Global Bioenergy Resources and Utilization Technologies 101

H. Yamamoto

7. Perspectives in Nuclear Energy 113 B. Frois

8. Efficiency in Oil Use and Alternatives to Oil 127 M.K. Eberle

9. An Overview of H2 Fuel for Use in the Transportation Sector 145 R.J. Allam

10. European Transportation in the Greenhouse - System and Policy Indicators 163

H. Gudmundsson

11. European Automobile CO2 Emissions: From Forecasts to Reality 193 T. Zachariadis

12. Implications for the Oil and Gas Industries 207 W. Khadduri

Author Biographies

Preface

Ernest J. Moniz, Editor

The Alliance for Global Sustainability (AGS) - comprised of Chalmers University, ETH-Zurich, MIT, and the University of Tokyo - and the Cyprus Research and Educational Foundation (CREF) jointly hosted a workshop in Nicosia, Cyprus on Climate Change and Energy Pathways for the Mediterranean. Participants came from fourteen countries. This workshop is intended to be the first of many that engage Cyprus, through CREF and its Cyprus Institute, as an important convenor for discussions that bring science, technology, and analysis to bear on critical issues facing the region - the eastern Mediterranean, northern Africa, the Middle East.

Climate change is a fitting topic for this initial discussion. It clearly ranks as an issue of overarching importance for the 21st century because of its centrality to global environmental, energy, economic, and security concerns, and this region faces major challenges in each of these areas. The workshop agenda was designed to initiate dialogue in several of these dimensions.

There is little doubt that human activity materially impacts the atmosphere. Annual carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion alone equal roughly a percent of pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 content, and these emissions are likely to grow rapidly as developing economies mature. This is of concern since long-standing expectations of the consequences of, say, doubling pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations are for average global temperature rise of several degrees over a relatively short period. We are on track for such a doubling around mid-century. A major response of the global energy infrastructure to dramatically decrease CO2 emissions over this time period must begin in the very near term because of the high degree of inertia of the capital-intensive energy industry.

The specific regional consequences of global warming are less understood but crucially important for the realities of public policy evolution. This workshop aims to contribute to a discussion for the eastern Mediterranean. For example, this region is clearly very sensitive to any shift in water resource availability. Global warming may exacerbate an already volatile situation. The workshop discussion served to emphasize how uncertainty about regional impacts may be of such consequence that prudent actions are called for in the near term, rather than serving as an excuse for inaction.

The second question is then what to do about it. Climate risk mitigation has three major pathways: mitigation through significant greenhouse gas reductions, with profound implications for the global energy system; adaptation measures tailored to different situations, both physical and economic; active large-scale re-engineering of the atmosphere (and potentially the oceans and biosphere as well) to compensate for both anthropogenic and natural drivers. These pathways are listed in an order that is generally thought to correspond to increasing risk. The workshop focused on mitigation pathways involving new "carbon-free" (or at least carbon-light) technologies and associated EU policy in the electricity and transportation sectors. The electricity sector in particular is likely to be the target of early action since it has large point sources of carbon dioxide emissions. These sectors may become increasingly linked if electricity use grows as a transportation "fuel", thereby somewhat exacerbating the challenge of carbonfree electricity at the multi-terawatt scale.

A third question is that of regional economic dislocation as developed nations, a significant fraction of which make up the EU, implement climate risk mitigation policies. The workshop focused on the implication for the oil and gas industries, which clearly represent the majority of economic activity in many states in the Middle East and northern Africa. Here, climate policy aligns with security policy, as many developed nations attempt to diminish their oil dependence. This is reflected in the strong emphasis growing on automotive efficiency, biofuels development, and revival of full or partial electric car concepts, all of which would serve to lower oil demand and to introduce elasticity into the transportation fuels market. One consequence is to have calls for reliability of supply by the oil-consuming countries answered by calls for reliability of demand by the oil-producing countries. The workshop addressed this issue through a distinguished panel including, among others, representatives from OPEC and from Greenpeace.

This last workshop panel exemplifies the aspirations of CREF and the Cyprus Institute: to serve as a gateway between the EU and the eastern Mediterranean, north Africa, Middle East region for dialogue on important issues with strong scientific and technical content. This is done in the hope that analytically-based dialogue can lead to solutions in a critical part of the world that has many issues to resolve collectively. Perhaps the response to climate change can serve as a model.

1 A Global Perspective on Climate Change

R.K. Pachauri1, Madhavi Chand2

1 Director-General, TERI and Chairman, IPCC

2 Research Associate, TERI

The relationship between human activities and climate change, involving both causes as well as impacts, has become a major issue of concern and interest all over the world. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change informs us that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased from 280 ppm in the period 1000-1750 AD to 379 ppm in the year 2005. The terrestrial biospheric exchange had been a cumulative source of about 30 Gt C for the past two centuries but acted as a sink in the 1990s. The concentration of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled from 700 ppb in the period 1000-1750 AD, to reach a concentration of 1774 ppb in the year 2005. The concentrations of hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, SF6 and N2O have also increased. The tropospheric concentration of ozone has increased even though its stratospheric concentration has decreased. The rising emissions and concentrations of all these gases have led to numerous changes in global climate variables. The global mean surface temperature is very likely to have increased by 0.74±0.18°C during the hundred year period 1906-2005. Although the increase is spread out all over the globe, it is greater in the northern hemisphere, and land areas have warmed faster than the oceans. It is very likely that the number of hot days and hot nights has increased and the number of cold days, cold nights and frost has decreased for nearly all land areas. The continental precipitation has increased in the eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and central Asia. However, it has decreased in some regions of Africa, southern Asia and the Mediterranean. It is also likely that the area affected by drought has increased since 1970.

The global mean sea level has increased at an average annual rate of 1.8±0.5 mm from 1961 to 1993 and 3.1±0.7 mm from 1993 to 2003. How-

E.J. Moniz (ed.), Climate Change and Energy Pathways for the Mediterranean, 1-14. © 2008 Springer.

ever, it is unclear whether this latter increased rate should be attributed to a decadal variation or to an increase in the long term trend. The snow cover has decreased by 10% since global observations through satellites became available in the 1960s. Arctic sea ice extent and thickness has thinned by 40% during the late summer and early autumn seasons. El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense in the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. There has been a poleward and higher elevation shift for plant, insect, bird and fish ranges. In fact, there are many biological and physical indicators that show that they have been affected by the changes in greenhouse gas concentrations and weather conditions.

Thus we cannot deny that the climate is changing and that human activities are partly, if not largely, responsible. In fact, the IPCC's Third Assessment Report has assessed that "there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities." Figure 1 shows a comparison between modelled and observed temperature rise since 1900 from AR4, which verifies that the anthropogenic influence on the climate is indeed extremely significant, because when we explicitly account for natural as well as anthropogenic forcings, observations track extremely close to modelled changes.

Global ¡Jlcofil Land Global Ocean

Global ¡Jlcofil Land Global Ocean

Fig. 1. Verification of anthropogenic influence on rising temperatures through a comparison between modelled and observed temperature changes (Source: IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report)

Over and above explaining changes in the global climate from the past to the present, it is necessary to attempt projections of corresponding changes in the future. A number of projections were carried out in the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for different sets of assumptions about the demographic, social, economic and technological developments in this century, without any climate policy interventions.

The CO2 concentration in the year 2100 is projected to range from 540 to 970 ppm, which is substantially higher than the 280 ppm in the pre-industrial era and 379 ppm in the year 2005.

This increase in CO2 concentration will result in a global average temperature rise of 1.4 to 5.8°C (range over all different scenarios) during the period from 1990 to 2100. This is over two to almost ten times larger than the warming in the 20th century and is very likely to be without precedent in the last 10,000 years. It is also very likely that nearly all land areas will continue to warm more than the global average.

The globally averaged annual precipitation is likely to increase during this century, though at the regional level there will be both increases and decreases of 5 to 20%. The glaciers in the northern hemisphere will continue their widespread retreat. The Antarctic ice sheet is likely to gain mass and the Greenland ice sheet will lose mass. The increase in global precipitation and reduction of ice caps will cause the mean sea level to rise. The global mean sea level is projected to rise by 9 to 88 cm during the 21st century. Figure 2 shows the projected curves for increasing CO2 emissions and average temperature rise from 2000 to 2001.

Scenarios for GHG emissions from 2000 to 2100 (in the absence of additional climate policies) and projections of surface temperatures

Scenarios for GHG emissions from 2000 to 2100 (in the absence of additional climate policies) and projections of surface temperatures

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Fig. 2. Projections for the 21st century for the different SRES scenarios. (Source: IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report)

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Fig. 2. Projections for the 21st century for the different SRES scenarios. (Source: IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report)

The SRES reviews existing literature, most of which is based on market exchange rates (the traditionally preferred measure for GDP growth, as opposed to purchasing power parity, which is currently the preferred measure for assessing differences in economic welfare). Major sources of estimates used come from the World Bank, the International Energy

Agency (IEA) and the US Department of Energy (USDoE), among others. Some IPCC scenarios are also based on purchasing power parity. Contrary to claims, IPCC scenarios are consistent with historical data, including those from 1990 to 2000, and with the most recent near term (up to 2020) projections of other agencies. Long-term emissions are based on multiple, interdependent driving forces, and not just economic growth.

In addition to the steadily rising temperatures, precipitation and sea level, the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases also lead to an increase in climate variability and extreme weather events. There are likely to be higher maximum temperatures and a larger number of hot days and heat waves over almost all land areas. The minimum temperatures are likely to increase more rapidly and a decrease in the number of cold days, frost days and cold waves is projected. This would lead to increased heat stress and decreased cold stress on the human population, wildlife and livestock. More intense precipitation events are projected, which would increase floods, landslides, avalanches and mudslide damage, and also increase soil erosion. However, increased runoff could increase recharge of some floodplain aquifers. Increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors would intensify the risk of drought, cause damage to building foundations due to ground shrinkage and increase the risk of forest fires. Intensification of tropical cyclones, etc., would be particularly detrimental for coastal areas and small island states. It is evident that projected climate changes will have some beneficial and some adverse effects. However, as these changes become larger and more rapid, the adverse effects will predominate. Changing climate impacts many aspects of civilisation and natural ecosystems. Figure 3 indicates, in broad terms, this range of impacts.

Climate change can affect human health directly through morbidity as well as loss of life in floods and droughts and indirectly through changes in heat stress, cold stress, ranges of disease vectors, water quality, air quality and water and airborne pathogens. The actual health impacts in different parts of the world will depend on the local environmental conditions, and on the social, economic, technological and institutional measures implemented to minimise the adverse effects.

Agriculture is the biggest employer and a very large contributor to GDP in many developing economies. The ultimate role of agriculture in Asian and African regions is to provide food and fibre to the human population. The effects of climate change on agriculture are widespread and serious. Crop yields and patterns are susceptible to changes in precipitation, temperature and CO2 concentration and indirect effects like soil moisture and infestation of pests and diseases. Thus climate change poses a serious threat to global food security, especially as it has the potential to lower the

Source: GRID Arendal

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