Multiregional Global Land Use and Energy Model GLUE

6.2.1 Outline of GLUE

In this section, the author explains the outline of the multiregional global land use and energy model (GLUE). In the model, the world is divided into eleven regions (Table 1) in order to analyze land-use competitions and bioenergy supply potential regionally. The model consists of two sectors (a food sector and a forest sector) and describes land-use competition among various uses for biomass products such as paper, timber, food, feed and energy. The model covers a wide range of land uses and biomass flows including paper recycling and food chains from feed to meat (Figure 1).

The model calculates bioenergy supply potential from 1961 to 1990 using the past data and simulates that from 1990 to 2100 using the data in the

Table 1. Regions in the model (GLUE)

No.

Regions

1

North America

2

Western Europe

3

Japan

4

Oceana

5

Centrally Planned Asia

6

Middle East and North Africa

7

Sub-Sahara Africa

8

Latin America

9

Former USSR and Eastern Europe

10

Southeast Asia

11

South Asia

Fig. 1. Wood biomass flow in the model (a). The widths of the arrows are not representative for the magnitude of the flow

future with a one-year time step. The data in the future were based on literatures such as FAOSTAT 1995, Bos et al. 1993, Pepper et al. 1992, Johansson et al. 1991, and Alcamo 1994. The author assumed a reference case where the data in the future were based on middle or base scenarios of the above literatures. The details of the model and the data were explained in Yamamoto et al. 2001b.

6.2.2 Simulation Results

The author conducted simulations using GLUE and the data in the reference case, and analyzed the simulation results of bioenergy supply potential considering land-use competitions.

Supply potential of energy crops

There will be supply potential of energy crops produced from surplus arable land in North America, Western Europe, Oceania, Latin America, and FSU and Eastern Europe. The bioenergy supply potential in the world will be 110 EJ/year in 2050 and 22 EJ/year in 2100 (Figure 2).

The reasons for the decrease of the potential between 2050 and 2100 are as follows. It was assumed that crop productivity would mature in the world

120

■ South Asia

100

□ Southeast Asia

c tu

□ FSU and East Europe

Jr ^^ \ \

■ Latin America

60

f \ \

■ Sub-Sahara Africa □ Middle East and N. Africa

raps supj (EJ/yr

/y \ \

40

______

□ China, etc.

20

□ Oceana

0

□ Japan

E

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

■ Western Europe □ North America

Fig. 2. Supply potential of energy crops

Fig. 2. Supply potential of energy crops after 2050 (Alcamo 1994) but animal food demand per capita would grow continuously in the developing regions after 2050 (Yamamoto et al. 2001a). Therefore, the increase of the food demand will exceed the increase of the food supply in the world, and the supply potential of energy crops will decrease between 2050 and 2100.

Supply potential of biomass residues

It was defined that ultimate bioenergy supply potential of biomass residues was all discharged biomass excluding that of material such as timber and paper recycling. The ultimate potential that is larger than the realistic potential can be a kind of yardstick of biomass resources.

Ultimate bioenergy supply potential of biomass residues will increase from 84 EJ/year in 1990 to 265 EJ/year in 2100 in the world in the reference case, following the increase of biomass consumption in the future.

The potential will be large in North America, Centrally Planned Asia, Latin America and South Asia where there will be major consumers or exporters of biomass (Figure 3). The numbers of the potential in those regions will be larger than 30 EJ/year in 2100.

Cereal-harvesting residues will take the highest share at 42% of the total residue potential in the world in 2100. Besides, industrial roundwood-felling residues, timber scrap and animal dung will take shares above 10%, respectively (Figure 4).

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