Exemplary Detailed Scenario for Electricity Advanced International Policies Scenario

If only electricity supply is assumed for the years up to 2040, the contribution of renewable energies in this field is much higher compared to total energy supply in 2040.

The higher penetration of renewables in electricity supply has different factors. On the one hand, some renewable techniques for electricity supply

2001

2010

2020

2030

2040

Total Consumption (IEA)

1 55 7 8

1 99 7 3

25 8 1 8

30855

3 63 46

Large Hydro

25 90

3095

3 590

39 65

41 65

Small Hydro

1 1 0

220

570

1230

2200

B iom ass

1 80

390

1010

21 80

42 90

Wind

54.5

5 1 2

3093

6307

8000

P V

2.2

20

27 6

25 70

9113

G eotherm al

50

1 34

31 8

625

1020

Solar Therm al

1

5

40

1 95

7 90

M arine

0.5

1

4

37

230

TOTAL RES

29 88.2

43 7 7

8901

17 109

29808

RES Contribution

19.2%

21.9%

34.5%

55.4%

are already more mature now compared to, for example, the conversion of renewables into fuels for transport. On the other hand, there are limiting factors for heating and cooling applications that are more difficult to overcome.

Therefore, the assumptions for electricity supply of renewables by 2040 are that renewables will contribute more than 80% to the total global electricity supply in 2040, as shown in Figure 3.

In the electricity supply, the share of large hydro in terms of percentage will significantly decrease, because there is no major growth expected. From its current status as the number one renewable electricity supply, it will only be in fourth place in 2040. Conversely, PV will then be the largest renewable electricity source with a production of more than 9000 TWh, followed by wind and biomass.

Scenarios help us understand the limitations of our "mental maps" of the world — to think the unthinkable, anticipate the unknowable and utilise both to make better strategic decisions for future generations.

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