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The shift from the Baseline scenario to the BLUE Map scenario, assuming an intermediate PHEV range, already results in a reduction of 2.8 Gt of CO2 emissions (about 1.6 Gt from efficiency gain and 1.2 Gt from ongoing decarbonisation of electricity - see Figure 5). Of the 1.6-Gt reduction from efficiency, about 1.0 Gt comes from EVs and 0.6 Gt from PHEVs.

The impact on CO2 emissions of shifting from low electric-driving-range PHEVs (running about 50% of the time on electricity by 2050) to higher-range PHEVs (achieving 80% electric driving by 2050) is shown in Figure 6. The figure shows the difference between the two PHEV scenarios in terms of CO2 emissions from electricity and the corresponding reduction in CO2 emissions from liquid fuels, as PHEVs shift toward more electricity use. Though differences are negligible in 2020, by 2035 we see a 40-megatonne (Mt) increase in CO2 emissions from electricity generation, and a 120-Mt decrease in CO2 emissions from liquid fuels (primarily gasoline/diesel and some biofuels), for a net emissions decrease of 80-Mt. By 2050 the electricity-related CO2 emissions increase is about 60 Mt in the high-range PHEV scenario, or 20% higher than in the low-range scenario. However, due to increasingly clean electricity, this 2050 increase is much smaller compared to the cut in liquid fuel CO2 emissions. The shift to longer-range PHEVs would result in six times the reduction of CO2 emissions thanks to lower liquid fuel use. Thus, by 2050 the high levels of PHEV use and mostly decarbonised electricity production could result in quite large net CO2 savings.

To achieve these 2050 reduction goals, production and demand for PHEVs (and EVs) must reach certain minimum levels by 2020 and 2035 so as to spur much larger demand levels by 2050. Overall, the net 300-Mt CO2 emissions reduction that could be achieved in moving from lower- to higher-range PHEVs adds about 50% to the reductions potentially achieved by PHEVs in the ETP Baseline scenario in 2050 (900 Mt as opposed to 600 Mt), and about 11 % to total reductions from both PHEVs and EVs from 2.8 Gt to 3.1 Gt.

Figure 6

Differences between world electricity-related

CO2 emissions and avoided CO2 emissions from liquid fuel demand from PHEVs in the two PHEV scenarios j 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 -400

Figure 6

Differences between world electricity-related

CO2 emissions and avoided CO2 emissions from liquid fuel demand from PHEVs in the two PHEV scenarios

Difference in CO2 emissions from electricity demand Difference in avoided CO2 emissions from liquid fuel demand

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