Overall Conclusions The Prospects of ZEVs

PHEVs with modest energy storage capacity will be derived from HEVs and will likely proliferate rapidly, stimulating further development and cost reduction of energy batteries and leading to commercially viable PHEVs and, in the longer term, FPBEVs. While PHEVs will continue to grow rapidly, as they have no functional limitations, FPBEVs will grow more slowly due to customer acceptance of limited range and long recharge time. NEVs are commercially viable now and will continue to grow, but will grow slowly due to limited functionality. CEVs will become commercially viable in Japan and Europe in the not too distant future due to lower hurdles for BEVs to overcome. CEVs may be offered in the U.S. as energy batteries continue to mature, but growth will be slow due to functional limitations of BEVs in general, and the specific limitations of CEVs, especially urban freeway driving. The intense effort on FCEVs will result in technically capable vehicles by the 2015-2020 time frame, but successful commercialization is dependent on meeting challenging cost goals and the availability of an adequate hydrogen infrastructure. If these challenges are met, FCEVs will likely grow rapidly.

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