Site scale

Simulated climatic change in northern Europe resulted in small to considerable increases in a mean tuber yield for both irrigated and non-irrigated potato crops (Fig. 9.10a,c). In central and southern Europe, climatic change resulted in both small decreases and increases in tuber yields for both irrigated and

Climate Policy Images

Fig. 9.10. Simulated potato tuber yields (mid variety) using NPOTATO. Present and future climate conditions at sites in northern (Jokioinen, Tylstrup and Oxford) and southern Europe (Debrecen, Montpellier and Bologna), (a, b) with and (c, d) without irrigation. Results refer to 30 years of generated weather data for baseline climate and for four climatic change scenarios. HCGG = Hadley Centre unified model climate change experiment with the greenhouse gas only integration; HCGSv = Hadley Centre unified model climate change experiment with the sulphate and greenhouse gas integration including changes in climatic variability; HCGS = Hadley Centre unified model climate change experiment with sulphate and greenhouse gas integration; HCGGv = Hadley Centre unified model climate change experiment with greenhouse gas only integration, including changes in climatic variability. For the baseline climate, the atmospheric [CO2] was set at 353 |mmol mol-1 and for the four scenarios at 515 |mmol mol-1.

Fig. 9.10. Simulated potato tuber yields (mid variety) using NPOTATO. Present and future climate conditions at sites in northern (Jokioinen, Tylstrup and Oxford) and southern Europe (Debrecen, Montpellier and Bologna), (a, b) with and (c, d) without irrigation. Results refer to 30 years of generated weather data for baseline climate and for four climatic change scenarios. HCGG = Hadley Centre unified model climate change experiment with the greenhouse gas only integration; HCGSv = Hadley Centre unified model climate change experiment with the sulphate and greenhouse gas integration including changes in climatic variability; HCGS = Hadley Centre unified model climate change experiment with sulphate and greenhouse gas integration; HCGGv = Hadley Centre unified model climate change experiment with greenhouse gas only integration, including changes in climatic variability. For the baseline climate, the atmospheric [CO2] was set at 353 |mmol mol-1 and for the four scenarios at 515 |mmol mol-1.

non-irrigated crops, depending on the selected future climatic change scenario (Fig. 9.10b,d). Variability of irrigated tuber yields slightly increased with climatic change in northern Europe, and it increased slightly to moderately in southern Europe (Fig. 9.11a,c). Under a baseline climate, the variability of water-limited tuber yields was much higher than that of irrigated yields, particularly in southern Europe and the UK. With climatic change, yield variability was essentially zero to moderately decrease in northern Europe and slightly to moderately lower in southern Europe (Fig. 9.11b,d).

An evaluation of the effectiveness of changes in crop management (i.e. variety, planting dates, irrigation) in response to climatic change was also performed. The results showed that at a site in northern Europe (i.e. Oxford)

Fig. 9.11. Coefficient of variation (CV) of simulated tuber yields (mid variety) calculated with NPOTATO for present and future climate conditions at sites in northern and southern Europe, (a, b) with and (c, d) without irrigation. Results refer to 30 years of generated weather data for baseline climate and for four climatic change scenarios. (See legend to Fig. 9.10.)

Fig. 9.11. Coefficient of variation (CV) of simulated tuber yields (mid variety) calculated with NPOTATO for present and future climate conditions at sites in northern and southern Europe, (a, b) with and (c, d) without irrigation. Results refer to 30 years of generated weather data for baseline climate and for four climatic change scenarios. (See legend to Fig. 9.10.)

the impact of crop variety on the calculated change in tuber yields of irrigated crops under the climatic change scenarios was nil, although the absolute yield differed among crop varieties (Fig. 9.12a). The increases in crops with water-limited yields under the climatic change scenarios were larger for the earlier varieties (Fig. 9.13a). Cultivation of earlier varieties resulted in more positive or fewer negative simulated tuber yield changes under the climatic change scenarios in southern Europe (e.g. Bologna), because the hot summer period was avoided, both with and without irrigation (Figs 9.12b and 9.13b). An advanced planting date resulted in a higher yield. This yield increase became large with climatic change in northern Europe (Fig. 9.14a,b); it was already large with the present climate in southern Europe and it increased further under the climatic change scenarios (Fig. 9.14c,d). Irrigation requirements may increase or decrease with climatic change, even without changes in rain. The extent that irrigation will be required in the future varies with the site, climatic change scenario, planting date and crop variety (data not shown). However, both an early crop variety and earlier planting dates considerably reduced irrigation requirements.

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