Regional scale

The results of the simple potato model applied for the unirrigated potato crop across Great Britain showed that under the HCGG scenarios (Fig. 9.15a), which are wetter and hotter than the HCGS scenarios, potato tuber yields were

Fig. 9.12. Simulated potato tuber yields of different irrigated potato varieties with NPOTATO for present and future climate conditions at (a) Oxford and (b) Bologna. Results refer to 30 years of generated weather data for baseline climate and for four climatic change scenarios. (See legend to Fig. 9.10.)

Fig. 9.12. Simulated potato tuber yields of different irrigated potato varieties with NPOTATO for present and future climate conditions at (a) Oxford and (b) Bologna. Results refer to 30 years of generated weather data for baseline climate and for four climatic change scenarios. (See legend to Fig. 9.10.)

Fig. 9.13. Simulated potato tuber yields of three potato varieties (early/mid/late; non-irrigated) on three soil types (coarse/medium/optimal), calculated with NPOTATO for present and future climate conditions at (a) Oxford and (b) Bologna. Results refer to 30 years of generated weather data for baseline climate and for four climatic change scenarios. (See legend to Fig. 9.10.)

Fig. 9.13. Simulated potato tuber yields of three potato varieties (early/mid/late; non-irrigated) on three soil types (coarse/medium/optimal), calculated with NPOTATO for present and future climate conditions at (a) Oxford and (b) Bologna. Results refer to 30 years of generated weather data for baseline climate and for four climatic change scenarios. (See legend to Fig. 9.10.)

lower in practically all regions of the UK. These lower yields were caused by the temperature rise, which speeded the phenological development of the crop and reduced the time for growth and biomass production. Under the HCGG scenarios, central England mainly had simulated yield increases (Fig. 9.15b). The temperature increase under this scenario is smaller than under the HCGG scenario, which accounts for the reduction in the area showing lower yields.

These results reinforce the belief that climatic change will have negative effects on yields because of increased temperature and lower rainfall. These negative effects may be more or less compensated for by higher photo-synthetic rates caused by increasing atmospheric [CO2] and by appropriate crop management strategies (i.e. variety, planting dates, irrigation).

Fig. 9.14. Sensitivity to changes in planting date (Julian day) of the potato tuber yields (mid variety), calculated with NPOTATO for present and future climate conditions at Oxford, (a) with and (b) without irrigation; and at Bologna, (c) with and (d) without irrigation. Results refer to 30 years of generated weather data for baseline climate and for four climatic change scenarios. (See legend to Fig. 9.10.)

Fig. 9.14. Sensitivity to changes in planting date (Julian day) of the potato tuber yields (mid variety), calculated with NPOTATO for present and future climate conditions at Oxford, (a) with and (b) without irrigation; and at Bologna, (c) with and (d) without irrigation. Results refer to 30 years of generated weather data for baseline climate and for four climatic change scenarios. (See legend to Fig. 9.10.)

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