Contents

List of Contributors xii

Preface xv Part I Introduction

1 Climate Change and Global Crop Productivity: an Overview 1

Part II The Problem: Changing Biosphere

2 Climatic Change and Variability 7

L.O. Mearns

2.1 Introduction 7

2.2 Past Climate Change 8

2.3 20th Century Climate 10

2.4 Role of Greenhouse Gases 12

2.5 Anthropogenic Aerosol Effects 17

2.6 Future Climate Change 18

2.7 The IPCC Third Assessment Report 27

2.8 Concluding Remarks 28 References 29

3 Agricultural Contributions to Greenhouse Gas Emissions 37

3.1 Introduction 37

3.2 Fossil Fuel Use in Agriculture 39

3.3 Management of Soil Carbon 41

3.4 Nitrous Oxide and Methane Emissions from Animal Wastes and Lagoons 44

3.5 Rice and Methane Production 46

3.6 Mitigation Options for Agriculture 49 References 50

Part III Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change

4 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Wheat 57

D.W. Lawlor andR.A.C. Mitchell

4.1 Introduction 57

4.2 Methods of studying global environmental change 60

4.3 Effect of [CO2] and Temperature on Basic Processes 61

4.4 Effects of [CO2] and Temperature on Biomass and Grain Yield 66

4.5 Atmospheric [CO2] x Temperature Interactions 68

4.6 Effects of [CO2] Under Water-limiting Conditions 68

4.7 Atmospheric Pollutants, [CO2] and Temperature 69

4.8 Wheat Quality 70

4.9 Designing Wheat Varieties for Global Environmental Change 71

4.10 Modelling 72

4.11 Summary and Conclusions 73 References 74

5 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Rice 81

T. Horie, J.T. Baker, H. Nakagawa, T. Matsui and H.Y. Kim

5.1 Introduction 81

5.2 Rice Responses to Elevated [CO2] and Temperature 85

5.3 Model Simulation of Global Climatic Change Effects on Regional Rice Production 98

5.4 Conclusions and Future Research Needs 100 References 101

6 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Maize and Sorghum 107

6.1 Introduction 107

6.2 Photosynthesis and Respiration 109

6.3 Water Use 114

6.4 Growth and Development 118

6.5 Yield 122

6.6 Conclusions and Future Research Directions 126 References 127

7 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Soybean 133

L. Hartwell Allen, Jr and KJ. Boote

7.1 Introduction 133

7.2 Photosynthesis and Respiration 135

7.3 Water Use 142

7.4 Growth and Development - Phenology 145

7.5 Growth and Development - Growth Rates of Organs 146

7.6 Crop Yields 150

7.7 Cultural and Breeding Strategies for Future Climate 153

7.8 Conclusions and Future Research Directions 154 References 155

8 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Cotton 161

8.1 Introduction 161

8.2 Approach and Methodology 163

8.3 Photosynthesis 163

8.4 Transpiration and Water Use 173

8.5 Phenology 175

8.6 Organ Growth Rates and Mass Partitioning 177

8.7 Yield and Yield Components 179

8.8 Historical Trends: Cotton Yields, [CO2], and other Technological Advances 180

8.9 Summary and Conclusions 182 References 183

9 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Root and Tuberous Crops 189

F. Miglietta, M. Bindi, F.P. Vaccari, A.H.C.M. Schapendonk, J. Wolf and R.E. Butterfield

9.1 Introduction 189

9.2 Expected Effects of Climatic Change on Root and Tuber Crops 191

9.3 Herbivory 199

9.4 Carbon Dioxide x Climatic Change Interactions in Potato 201

9.5 Conclusions 207 References 209

10 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Vegetable

Crops 213

10.1 Introduction 213

10.2 Effects of Global Climatic Change on Crop Plants 214

10.3 Case Studies 230

10.4 Summary 236

10.5 Impacts on the Vegetable Industry 236 References 237

11 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Tree Crops 245

I.A. Janssens, M. Mousseau and R. Ceulemans

II.1 Introduction 245

11.2 Trees vs. Non-woody Plants: Similarities and Differences 247

11.3 Effects of Climatic Changes on Tree Growth and Physiology 249

11.4 Conclusions and Future Directions 261 References 263

12 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Productive Grasslands 271

J. Nosberger, H. Blum and J. Fuhrer

12.1 Introduction 271

12.2 Photosynthesis and Respiration 272

12.3 Water Use 276

12.4 Growth and Yield 279

12.5 Management and Breeding Strategies for Future Climates 286

12.6 Conclusions and Future Research Directions 287 References 288

13 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Rangelands 293

H.W. Polley, J.A. Morgan, B.D. Campbell and M.S. Smith

13.1 Introduction 293

13.2 Atmospheric and Climatic Change 294

13.3 Impacts on Plant Productivity 296

13.4 Impacts on Forage Quality 298

13.5 Impacts on Plant Species Composition 300

13.6 Management Implications 304

13.7 Conclusions 308 References 308

14 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Crassulacean Acid Metabolism Crops 315

P.S. Nobel

14.1 Introduction and Background 315

14.2 Gas Exchange 318

14.3 Values for Component Indices of Environmental Productivity Index 320

14.4 Productivity 323

14.5 Effects of Elevated [CO2] 325

14.6 Conclusions and Future Research Directions 327 References 328

15 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Crop/Weed Interactions 333

15.1 Introduction 333

15.2 Comparative Responses of Crops and Weeds 340

15.3 Weed Management 346

15.4 Summary and Future Research 347 References 348

16 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Pests and Population Dynamics 353

A.P. Gutierrez

16.1 Introduction 353

16.2 The Use of Growth Indices in Climate Matching 355

16.3 Some Modelling Preliminaries 359

16.4 A Physiologically Based Approach 360

16.5 Per Unit Mass Growth Dynamics 362

16.6 Non-resource Factors 364

16.7 Climate Effects on Tritrophic Systems 365

16.8 The Effects of Climate Change on Biological Control 366

16.9 Analysis of Species Persistence in Food Webs 367

16.10 General Comments 368 References 370

17 Crop Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Change: Soil Organic Matter Dynamics 375

17.1 Introduction 375

17.2 A Framework for Understanding 375

17.3 Measuring Soil Organic Matter 377

17.4 Sources of Soil Organic Matter 377

17.5 Regulation of Rates of Soil Organic Matter Decomposition 378

17.6 Transformations of Soil Organic Matter 379

17.7 Experimental Results 380

17.8 Conclusions 381 References 382

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