Empirical Expectations

Incorporating CAS insights into the norm life cycle provides a simple, flexible framework for structuring inquiry that is grounded in micro-level processes. I can discern rule models in the agents of interest, observe the rule models producing behavior, and observe the evaluation of the outcomes. In this way, I can trace the evolution of both actors and social norms and explain the emergence and evolution of the universal participation norm. When approaching the empirical record with the explanation formulated above, the following outcomes and occurrences would constitute a successful "test" of the verbal model:

1. I must see a norm entrepreneur pushing universal participation in the ozone depletion negotiations. The norm entrepreneur is recognizable via his/her platform and through the advocacy of universal participation.

2. I must see that the United States incorporates the new rule (norm) only when old rules are weakened by negative evaluation.

3. I must see that positively evaluated rules become taken for granted over time and reused in similar situations—that is, climate change.

4. I must see that continual interpretation and evaluation of the universal participation norm leads to norm slippage (divergent understandings of universal participation in the United States relative to the rest of the world).

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