Socio-economic linkage is relatively complex, and needs to be linked through the bio-physical modifications associated with the climate change. Land use and land cover change in our country is changing rapidly due to several driving forces. Socioeconomic aspects can be dealt in two ways, one working out the cost-benefit analysis for various climate change scenarios by using econometric-process models (Antle and Capalbo 2001) and the other, generating the socio-economic scenario of future which links with the cropping system model for further impact analysis.
World Bank report (1998) analyzed climate change effects on Indian agriculture, through annual net revenues, by using Ricardian method (Mendelsohn et al. 1994). The three methodologies, as adopted in the study, found Indian Agriculture sensitive to warming. The analyses further showed year-to-year climate sensitivity to the system's response. The studies revealed that net revenues fall precipitously with warmer April's, but also sensitive to warmer January and July. Crop revenues increased with October temperatures. Net revenues were also sensitive to precipitation, but the effects were smaller and off-setting. A warming scenario of +2.0°C rises in mean temperature and a +7% increase in mean precipitation levels will create reduction in the net revenues, as revealed from the three approaches. The impact is differential on spatial and temporal scales. But the study seemed to be weak for linking with the biophysical aspects. Even then, this kind of study is a beginning of future plans of initiating the work in this regard.
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