Notes

Introduction

1 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) (1982), Article 56, (1), (a).

2 UNCLOS (1982), Article 76, (6). A coastal state does not have such unconditional rights over natural resources found in this extended economic zone (EEZ). See Conclusion pp. 222.

3 UNCLOS first came into effect on 16 November 1994, having first been signed on 10 December 1982. Switzerland signed the Convention on 1 May 2009, becoming the 158th state to do so.

4 By April 2009, 22 countries had applied to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf to claim an outer continental shelf (OCS). Just nine claims were made between 2001 and 2007. The total area of OCS that could eventually be claimed by the world's coastal countries could amount to as much as 5.7 million square miles, while the world's EEZs are estimated at 32.3 million. 'The Area' covers around 98.8 million square miles. See Paskal, C. and Lodge, M. (2009), 'A fair deal on seabed wealth: the promise and pitfalls of Article 82 on the outer continental shelf', briefing paper, London: Chatham House.

5 This was the view of Leonid Lobkovksy, deputy head of the Russian Institute of Oceanology, interviewed in the newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 13 August 2007.

6 The Arctic is usually defined as the region that lies north of the Arctic Circle, the circle of latitude that runs 66.56 degrees north latitude. But other criteria include the local climate and ecology, such as the 10-degree July isotherm. This book uses the first and more broadly accepted definition.

8 Canwest News Service, 11 November 2008.

9 UNCLOS (1982), Annex II, Article 4.

10 'Developing Europe's Energy Security: Is the Arctic the Future Frontier?', Café Crossfire Debate sponsored by Friends of Europe in association with StatoilHydro, 19 September 2008, Brussels, Belgium.

11 Hassol, S. (2004), Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Cambridge and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. This quote is taken from the Executive Summary.

12 See Chapters 5 and 6.

13 Antarctica Treaty (1959), Article 4.

14 Antarctica Treaty (1959), Article 1.

Chapter 1

1 Some of the other countries that experienced serious unrest were Guinea, Mauritania, Indonesia, the Philippines and Senegal.

2 'Food riots fear after rice price hits a high', Guardian, 6 April 2008.

3 Climate Change and International Security, S113/08, 14 March 2008, p. 5.

4 'A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower', United States Navy Report, October 2007.

5 Professor John Beddington, speech to the Sustainable Development UK Conference, London, 19 March 2009.

6 In December 2008 the Russian news agency, RIA Novosti, reported that more than 60 bombers and 15 refuelling planes had taken off from Engels' air base near Saratov. See also Chapter 9, p. 158.

7 'Politicus: assessing Russia's plans with a rare fortitude', International Herald Tribune, 1 October 2008.

8 General Sverre Diesen's speech at the Oslo Military Academy, 26 November

2007.

9 Interview with Kathleen Harris. 'Laying claim to Canada's internal waters', Sun Media, 23 February 2007.

10 Interview in Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star), 24 June 2008; interview in RIA Novosti, 11 June 2008.

11 Reported by RIA Novosti, 15 July 2008. See also 'Russian navy resumes Arctic sea patrols', Ice News, 26 July 2008. Spitsbergen is the largest island in the Svalbard archipelago, which used to be referred to as 'the Spitsbergen archipelago'. The Norwegians replaced the Dutch word 'Spitsbergen' with the ancient Norse 'Svalbard' in 1920.

12 'Russian National Security Strategy until 2020', 25 December 2008. This draft text was approved by the National Security Council in Moscow on 20 February 2009.

13 The document, entitled 'Principles for Russian Politics in the Arctic in the Period to 2020 and in a Further Perspective', was published on the website of Russia's Security Council on 27 March 2009.

14 Article 51 of the UN Charter 1945 states that a member state has 'the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs . . . until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security'.

15 Deudney, D. and Ikenberry, G. J. (2009), 'The myth of the autocratic revival', Foreign Affairs, 88, (1), 87-8.

16 See Chapter 12, pp. 209-10.

17 UNCLOS (1982), Part XI. In particular, Article 136 states that 'the Area and its resources are the common heritage of mankind'.

18 In his History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides famously explained war as the outcome of 'fear', as well as ambition and advantage.

19 See below Chapter 4, pp. 54-5, Chapter 11, pp. 193-4.

20 'Russia and NATO look to Arctic co-operation', Jane's Defence Weekly, 3 April 2009.

21 The Ilulissat Declaration. Proceedings of the Arctic Ocean Conference.

2008, 27-9 May 2008; Ilulissat, Greenland; Denmark: Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In March 2009 the United States remained a non-signatory state of the 1982 Convention. See Chapter 10.

22 Interview in RIA Novosti, 18 April 2008.

23 The collision took place in 1990. See Franckx, E. (1993), Maritime Claims in the Arctic: Canadian and Russian Perspectives. Dordrecht and London: Martinus Nijhoff.

24 Russian attempts to base missiles in Cuba led to the Missile Crisis of 1962. Recent NATO plans to station parts of the Missile Defense Shield in Poland have provoked a very strong reaction in the Kremlin.

26 The Mary River iron ore deposits on Baffin Island are producing high-grade iron ore with a content of 67 per cent. During the 2008 season 120,000 tonnes of bulk cargo was shipped from the mine to European mills.

27 The meeting of Russia's National Security Council, Franz Josef Land, 15 September 2008.

28 Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment, 29 April 2009. Arctic Council, Tromsoe, Norway, p. 73.

29 In 2007, the Canadian Coast Guard (CCG) recorded 132 voyages through Arctic waters, compared with 63 the previous year. The CCG does, however, include the Hudson Bay as part of its Arctic operational area, even though it is technically south of the Arctic Circle. On the Russian use of the National Sea Route see Chapter 7, p. 106-8.

30 Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, 'Speech on security prospects in the High North'. NATO conference; 2009, 29 January; Reykjavik, Iceland.

31 National Security Presidential Decision Directive/NSPD 6, January 2009.

32 'Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World', Central Intelligence Agency Report, November 2008, pp. 32, 49.

33 'Russia's role in rescuing Iceland', BBC News, 13 November 2008. (Quoting an editorial in Barents Observer.)

Chapter 2

1 Kolbert, E. (2005), 'The climate of man', The New Yorker, 25 April.

3 Professor Charles Harris of Cardiff University, quoted in 'Earth's permafrost starts to squelch'. BBC News, 29 December 2004.

4 'Climate change could doom Alaska's tundra', news report by the College of Engineering, Oregon State University, 5 August 2004. This article quoted Professor Bachelet's speech to the annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America held at Portland, Oregon, 1-4 August.

5 Hagedorn, F. (2008), 'Expanding forests and changing growth forms of Siberian larch at the Polar Urals treeline during the 20th century'. Global Change Biology, 14 (7), 1581-91.

6 The report, originally published in Geophysical Research Letters, was published in Globe and Mail, Ottawa, Canada, 22 November 2002.

7 'Arctic sea ice shrinks as temperatures rise', press release, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, 3 October 2006.

8 'Islands emerge as Arctic ice shrinks to record low', Reuters, 21 August 2007.

9 'Arctic ice is thinner than ever according to new evidence from explorer', Daily Telegraph, 17 April 2009.

10 'Mammoth sale of fossil ivory helps nomadic herders', Guardian, 2 March 2005.

11 'Arctic becomes Tourism hot spot, but is that cool?', Wall Street Journal, 24 September 2007.

12 Address by Ginny Fay, Director of DCED Division of Tourism, to 7th Annual Ecotourism in Alaska Conference, 3 February 2000, Anchorage, AK.

13 'Global warming is killing us too, say Inuit', Guardian, 11 December 2003.

14 Speech of Mr Per Bethelsen, Greenland's Minister for Finance and Foreign Affairs, Arctic Frontiers Conference, 19 January 2009, Tromsoe, Norway.

15 The 'albedo effect' is also mentioned in Chapter 2, p. 33.

16 Mark Serreze, quoted in 'Arctic ice "disappearing quickly"', BBC News, 28 September 2005.

17 'The methane time bomb', Independent, 23 September 2008.

18 Reported in the Arctic Blog by BBC Newsnight's science editor, Susan Watts, 27 August 2008.

Chapter 3

1 Quoted in Officer, C. and Page, J. (2001), A Fabulous Kingdom: The Exploration of the Arctic. Oxford and New York, NY: Oxford University Press, p. 45. For a general history of Arctic exploration see Berton, P. (1988), The Arctic Grail: The Quest for the Northwest Passage and the North Pole 1818-1909. New York: Viking.

2 Parry, W. E. (1824), Journal of a Voyage for the Discovery of the NorthWest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific. London: John Murray.

3 Kane, E. (1857), Arctic Explorations: The Second Grinnell Expedition in Search of Sir John Franklin, 1853, '54, '55, Childs and Peterson: Philadelphia, p. 124.

4 The Northeast Passage is distinct from the Northern Sea Route (NSR) because it begins and ends in high seas; whereas the NSR is regarded, by the Russians at least, purely as a national transport route.

5 Bomann-Larsen, T. (2006), Roald Amundsen. Stroud: Sutton Publishing, p. 308.

Chapter 4

1 'Islands emerge from the melting Arctic ice', Reuters, 21 August 2007.

2 Under international law, acts of discovery only confer inchoate title. Further acts of occupation and administration are required. See The Netherlands v United States of America, 4 April 1928, 2 RIIA 829.

3 An obvious example is the long-running dispute between the Russian government and BP's joint venture with TNK.

4 Ross, M. L. (2008), 'Blood barrels: why oil wealth fuels conflict', Foreign Affairs, 87, (3), 2-8.

5 Shlaim, A. (1995), War and Peace in the Middle East: A Concise History. London and New York, NY: Penguin Books, p. 133.

6 'The recognition of Kuwait by Iraq, which had followed the 1963 coup was half-hearted, and Kuwait had to bribe the Iraqis to obtain it anyway'. Aburish, S. K. (2000), Saddam Hussein: The Politics of Revenge. London: Bloomsbury, p. 73.

7 Introduction pp. 3-4.

8 The argument of 'ice as land' was adopted by Canadian lawyers in the 1960s. See Reid, R. (1974), 'The Canadian claim to sovereignty over the waters of the arctic', Canadian Yearbook of International Law, Vol. 12, p. 119.

9 Burkhanov, V. F. (1957), Soviet Arctic Research. Translated by E. R. Hope. Ottawa, ON: Defence Research Board of Canada.

10 UNCLOS (1982), Article 234.

11 UNCLOS (1982), Article 87.

12 The Treaty Concerning Spitsbergen (Svalbard) came into effect in 1925.

13 1867 Convention Ceding Alaska between Russia and the United States, 134 Consolidated Treaty Series (ConTS) 331.

14 Rt Hon Joe Clark (1995), Statement on Sovereignty, 10 September. See generally Griffiths, F. (1987), Politics of the Northwest Passage. Kingston, ON: McGill-Queens University Press, pp. 269-73.

15 Statement of Pierre Trudeau to the House of Commons, 15 May 1969.

16 The political tensions over this and other Arctic matters are discussed further in Chapter 11.

20 UNCLOS (1982), Article 25.

21 UNCLOS (1982), Articles 86, 87. The 'contiguous zone' is contiguous to the territorial sea and may extend for a further 12 miles from the baseline of the coastal state under Article 33.

23 The 'Anglo-Norwegian Fisheries Case', United Kingdom v Norway (1951), ICJ Reports 116.

24 UNCLOS (1982), Article 38 (1). A 'strait' can exist through internal waters, territorial sea, a contiguous zone or exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

25 The invention of the category of 'transit passage' in UNCLOS represented a compromise between the competing claims made by coastal states and naval powers. Coastal states wanted maritime traffic moving through any strait to only have 'innocent passage' whereas other countries wanted freedom of navigation. 'Transit passage' represented a halfway measure, giving coastal states powers to impose restrictions on ships, but not as sweeping as they would enjoy on ships making 'innocent passage'.

26 Its claims are specified under section 7 of the Oceans Act 1996.

27 The International Court of Justice recognized a claim of 'historic waters' in a landmark ruling, 'Anglo-Norwegian Fisheries Case' (1951), ICJ Reports 116.

28 So in 1970 the US State Department responded to Canadian claims over the Northwest Passage by stating that 'international law provides no basis for these proposed unilateral extensions of jurisdiction on the high seas, and the United States can neither accept or acquiesce in the assertion of such jurisdiction'. See Rothwell, D. R. (1996), The Polar Regions and the Development of International Law. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 195.

29 United Kingdom v Albania (1949), ICJ Reports 3, 'The Corfu Channel Case'.

30 UNCLOS (1982), Article 3.

31 Nunavut Land Claims Agreement Act, S.C. 1993, c. 29.

32 National Security Presidential Decision Directive/NSPD 66, January 2009.

33 Section 1.2 of 'Regulations for Navigation of the Seaways of the Northern Sea Route', reprinted in Franckx, E. (1993), Maritime Claims in the

Arctic, Appendix 1, p. 315. See generally Rothwell, D. R. (1996), The Polar Regions and the Development of International Law. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 201-12.

34 Brigham, L. W. (1991), The Soviet Maritime Arctic. London: Belhaven Press, pp. 216-17.

35 Russia's claim that it had a right to impose restrictions on maritime traffic in territorial sea was later incorporated in the Administration of the Northern Sea Route 1971.

36 The crucial passage of the Soviet message ran: 'The Vilkitsky Strait is within USSR territorial waters. Therefore sailing of any foreign navy ships in the strait is subject to regulations of safety of USSR frontiers. For passing the strait according to the above regulations military ships must obtain preliminary permission of USSR government through diplomatic channels one month before expected date of passing.'

37 UNCLOS (1982), Article 15.

38 See Chapter 5.

39 Message from the Danish ambassador, Embassy of Denmark, Ottawa, ON, 28 July 2005.

40 The Permanent Court of International Justice (PCIJ), dissolved in 1946, was the forerunner of the International Court of Justice.

42 The 19,475 square nautical miles (nm) of the Grey Zone are comprised of 12,070 square nm of overlapping EEZ, 6,558 square nm of undisputed Norwegian EEZ and 817 square nm of undisputed Russian EEZ.

43 Treaty concerning the Archipelago of Spitsbergen, and Protocol, Paris, 9 February 1920.

44 This 'territorial sea' was previously 3 nautical miles, although by the 1960s a growing number of countries were claiming that the distance was 12 miles instead. In 1957, Norway proclaimed a 3-mile territorial sea around Svalbard. A government report argued that this was to 'lay the formal foundation to claim unrestricted Norwegian jurisdiction over the seabed . . . around Svalbard except for the areas within the 4-mile limits, which would be subject to Svalbard Treaty provisions'. In 2004, Norway expanded the territorial sea borders around Svalbard from 3 to 12 miles.

46 House of Lords Debates, Volume 477, 2 July 1986.

47 The British position was that the Norwegians did not need to be invited because their legal case over Svalbard was already clear. This is based on the author's telephone interview with a Western diplomat, 3 February 2009.

48 1978 Agreement on the Interim Practical Agreement for Fishing in an Adjoining Area in the Barents Sea, 11 January 1978.

49 See Chapter 12.

50 UNCLOS (1982), Article 83.

51 Tunisia v Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 1982, ICJ Rep. 18; Libya v Malta 1985, ICJ 13; The North Sea Continental Shelf Cases 1969, ICJ Rep. 3.

52 Tunisia v Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 1982, ICJ Rep. 18.

53 Bernier, J. E. (1939), Master Mariner and Arctic Explorer. Ottawa, ON: Le Droit, p. 128.

54 According to the 1926 decree, the USSR 'proclaims as territories all lands and islands already discovered or discovered in the future which at the time of publication of this decree are not recognized . . . as territories of any foreign state and which lie in the Arctic Ocean north of the shores of Union of Soviet Socialist Republics . . . up to the North Pole'.

55 Norway made its submission to the UN Commission on 27 November 2006; Denmark is due to make its own submission by 2014.

Chapter 5

1 Mouawad, J. (2008), 'Oil survey says Arctic has riches', International Herald Tribune, 24 July.

2 In its World Petroleum Assessment (DDS-60), published in 2000, the USGS had estimated the world's total undiscovered reserves of both oil and natural gas. Excluding the US, the volumes were estimated to be 649 billion barrels of oil and 4,669 trillion cubic feet of gas.

3 'Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle', USGS Fact Sheet 3049, 2008.

4 '90 billion barrels of oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas assessed in the Arctic', USGS, press release, 23 July 2008.

5 Yergin, D. (1991), The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power. New York, NY: Simon & Schuster, pp. 608, 627.

6 Quoted in 'Iran wields oil embargo threat', BBC News, 5 April 2002.

7 See 'Oil's Trouble Spots', Briefing by the Council on Foreign Relations, 5 January 2009.

8 'Brown calls for end to the power of OPEC', Guardian, 20 May 2008.

9 'Peak oil' has spawned a huge bibliography. An example is Simmons, M. (2005), Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. London and New York, NT: John Wiley & Sons.

10 'Global oil supply will peak in 2020, says energy agency', Guardian, 15 December 2008. In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted an annual 3.7 per cent rate of decline, but a year later increased this to 6.7 per cent.

11 Shaxson, N. (2007), Poisoned Wells: The Dirty Politics of African Oil. London and New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, p. 16.

12 Quoted in Marcel, V. (2006), Oil Titans: National Oil Companies in the Middle East. Chatham House, London, and Brookings Institution, Washington DC, p. 133.

13 Debate organized by the Friends of Europe, 19 September 2008. See also the news report of 22 September 2008, 'EU energy chief backs Arctic drilling'. Available at: http://www.euractiv.com/en/environment/eu-energy-chief-backs-arctic-drilling/article-175601

14 'The European Union and the Arctic Region', Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, Brussels, Belgium, 20 November 2008, p. 6.

15 Mouawad, J. (2008), 'Oil survey says Arctic has riches', International Herald Tribune, 24 July.

16 The figures were West Siberia (3.69 bn barrels of oil), Arctic Alaska (29.96 bn), East Barents Sea (7.4 bn), East Greenland Rift (8.9 bn), Yenisey-Khatanaga (5.58 bn), Amerasia (9.72 bn), West Greenland-East Canada (7.24 bn) and Laptev Sea (3.11 bn).

17 In addition to East Greenland and West Greenland, the USGS estimated that Greenland's northern shores have 1.34 bn of oil.

18 See Chapter 12.

19 'Iceland to offer offshore drilling licenses in race for Arctic's oil', The Times, 21 August 2008.

20 The Amerasia Basin extends from Ellesmere Island to the East Siberian Sea. It includes the Bering Strait and Beaufort Sea. The border between Canada and the United States in the Beaufort Sea is disputed, but this is a disagreement between two NATO allies. See also Chapter 4, p. 54 and Chapter 11, p. 193.

22 See also Chapter 1, pp. 19-21 and Chapter 11, pp. 194-7.

23 See in general Chapter 4 above.

24 'Searching for oil in the Barents Sea', news item on the website of the Research Council of Norway, 28 February 2007.

25 'Climate change may spark conflict with Russia EU told', Guardian, 10 March 2008.

26 See Chapter 12.

27 'Russia and Norway Wrestle Over Barents Sea', German Press Agency, 26 June 2006.

28 Ryashin, V. (2005), 'Norway, Russia to restart Barents dispute talks', Dow Jones Commodities News, 13 October.

29 Kristian Atland, a researcher at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment.

30 See in general the author's article: 'Defying the Experts', International Herald Tribune, 20 May 2008; and book (2008), The Oil Hunters: Exploration and Espionage in the Middle East 1880-1939. London and New York, NY: Continuum.

31 'How much oil do we really have?' BBC News, 15 July 2005.

32 'Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle', USGS Fact Sheet 3049, 2008, p. 1.

33 Quoted in '90 billion barrels' by Alan Bailey, Petroleum News, 24 July 2008.

34 'Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the East Greenland Rift Basins province', USGS Fact Sheet 3077, 2007, August.

35 The Future of the Arctic: A New Dawn for Exploration was published on 1 November 2006. These remarks were made at a press conference at Houston, USA, and reported in 'Wood Mackenzie downgrades Arctic as energy supply source', Oil and Gas Financial Journal, 11 November 2006.

36 'Searching for oil in the Barents Sea'.

37 Author's interview with Dr Rob Mandley, 29 December 2008.

39 Quoted in '90 billion barrels' by Alan Bailey, Petroleum News, 24 July 2008.

40 Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle. USGS Fact Sheet 3049, 2008, p. 1.

41 Author's interview with Dr Rob Mandley.

42 See Andrew Latham's article, 'World's Arctic basins pose array of unique work opportunities', Oil and Gas Journal, 13 November 2006.

44 'Devon Energy has no plans yet for Arctic oil find', Financial Post, 17 October 2007.

45 Willy De Backer quoted in the EU-Statoil conference, 'Developing Europe's Energy Security: Is the Arctic the Future Frontier?', 19 September 2008.

46 'Iraq accuses Kuwait of slant drilling and stealing 300,000 barrels of oil daily', Agence France Presse, 17 September 2000.

Chapter 6

1 International Energy Outlook 2008, United States Energy Information Administration.

2 Gazprom's exact earnings for 2006-07 were 873.4 billion roubles.

4 The USGS put this figure at around 84 per cent.

5 The Wood Mackenzie-Fugro Robertson survey estimated that natural gas constitutes 85 per cent of existing discoveries and 74 per cent of undiscovered reserves.

6 'StatoilHydro strikes gas in Barents Sea', International Herald Tribune,

I November 2008.

7 'Study points to major source of natural gas in Alaska', Washington Post, 12 November 2008; 'US estimates 85.4 Tcf in Alaska natural gas hydrates', Reuters, 12 November 2008.

8 'Gas trove lurks in Russo-Norwegian "grey zone"', Scandinavian Oil and Gas Magazine, 12 June 2008.

9 Author's interview with Andrew Latham, 29 December 2008.

10 'The European Union and the Arctic Region', Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and Council, p. 6; Andrew Latham of Wood Mackenzie, quoted in Oil and Gas Financial Journal,

II November 2006.

11 See Chapter 3 of the International Energy Outlook, 2008.

12 EU Energy Commissioner, Andris Piebalgs, warned Russia on 3 January that 'I don't think making the EU a hostage is the proper way'.

13 'The European Union and the Arctic Region'. COM (2008). Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, 763, 20 November, p. 6.

14 'The Arctic Energy Agenda', a roundtable of representatives of the EU, United States, Norway and Russia, Kirkenes, 7 July 2005.

15 'Developing Europe's Energy Security: Is the Arctic the Future Frontier?', Café Crossfire Debate sponsored by Friends of Europe in association with StatoilHydro, 19 September 2008, Brussels, Belgium.

16 'Russian bid to control world's gas prices', Sunday Telegraph, 28 December 2008.

17 China accounted for more than 50 per cent of the growth in world consumption of industrial metals from 2002 to 2005.

18 'Greenland's melting glaciers spur mining', Wall Street Journal, 17 July 2007.

19 Author's interview with De Beers spokesman, Toronto, ON, 22 January 2008.

20 'The Raw Materials Initiative - Meeting Our Critical Needs for Growth and Jobs in Europe'. COM (2008), 4 November 2008.

22 Oceanography and Climate Research Group (2006), Climate and Fish: How does climate affect our fish resources? Bergen, Norway: Institute of Marine Research.

23 Hassol, S., Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Cambridge and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press pp. 433, 507.

24 'The Arctic Ocean and Climate Change: A Scenario for the US Navy',

United States Arctic Research Commission Special Publication No. 02-1, 2002.

25 'As polar ice turns to water, dreams of treasure abound', New York Times, 10 October 2005.

26 'The European Union and the Arctic Region', Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, COM (2008), 763, 20 November 2008, p. 7.

27 The European Union and the Arctic Region. Report by the EU Commission, Brussels, COM (2008), 763, 20 November 2008, p. 3.

28 Speech at Arctic Frontiers Conference, 19 January 2009. See also 'The European Union and the Arctic Region', Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, 20 November

29 In 2008 the UN estimated that about 50 per cent of fish stocks are fully utilized and another 25 per cent are overfished. This leaves just 25 per cent with some potential for increased fish harvests.

30 'The Barents Sea Cod: the last of the large cod stocks', World Wildlife Fund Norway Report, 10 May 2004.

31 See William Dunlop's article 'Straddling stocks in the Barents Sea Loophole', IBRU Boundary and Security Bulletin, Winter 1996-97.

32 On the growing global demand for fish in the Far East and beyond see 'Japan faces up to the prospect of "peak fish"'. Financial Times, 28 January

2009.

33 In May 2008, for example, several boat captains and ship owners in Murmansk wrote jointly to Prime Minister Putin asking for a more secure presence after Norwegian authorities asked the patrol vessel Mikula to leave the port at Barentsburg on Spitsbergen. Reported by the Norwegian paper Fiskeribladet, 20 May 2008.

34 'Novaya Zemlya opening up?' Barents Observer, 19 May 2008.

Chapter 7

1 'Arctic riches coming out of the cold', International Herald Tribune, 10 October 2005.

2 The Russian carriers use the port at Dudinka.

3 'Russian ship crosses "Arctic bridge" to Manitoba', Globe and Mail, 18 October 2007.

4 'Naval operations in an ice-free Arctic', a symposium held 17-18 April 2001, Washington DC, reported by the Office of Naval Research, Naval Ice Center, Oceanographer of the Navy and the Arctic Research Commission; 'Arctic Marine Transport Workshop', a conference held at the Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge UK, by the Institute of the North, US Arctic Research Commission and International Arctic Science Committee, 28-30 September 2004.

5 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, p. 925.

6 See Chapters 4, pp. 52-3 and 9, pp. 159-61; Butler, W. E. (1971), The Soviet Union and the Law of the Sea. Baltimore, MD: John Hopkins Press, p. 116.

7 Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment, 29 April 2009, pp. 27, 30, 35.

9 'Trailblazer Beluga', Tradewinds, 5 September 2008.

10 Author's interview with Tim Daffern, Director of Mining and

Exploration at Angus & Ross, 16 December 2008. See also Chapter 6, pp. 92-3.

11 In 2007 the cost of leasing a large container ship was $26,000 per day.

12 See the article by Borgerson, S. G. (2008), 'Arctic meltdown: the economic and security implications of global warming', Foreign Affairs, 87, (2), 63-77.

13 From 376 million dwt to 553 million dwt in the year 2030, according to OPEC's World Oil Outlook, 2008, p. 177.

14 'Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore set up cooperative mechanism', Channel News Asia, 4 September 2007.

15 Ships that have any chance at all of contacting ice are 'ice-strengthened' or 'ice-capable', while an ordinary ship with no strengthening will not risk touching the ice at all. There is no actual universal definition of what needs to be done to a ship to be 'officially ice-strengthened' and it can be applied to all manner of ships, whether supply ships, tankers, container ships, warships etc. Commonly ice-strengthened ships can cope with continuous ice about 25-50 inches thick, perhaps by having more power or thicker plating in certain places, as well as an icebreaking bow. To cut through ice any thicker, an 'icebreaker' - with a distinctive design, a strengthened hull and specially reinforced steel in its bow and stern - is required.

16 'The European Union and the Arctic Region'. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and Council, COM (2008), 763, 20 November 2008, p. 8.

17 'How climate change sparked a Canadian gold rush', The Times, 17 February 2008.

18 Moon, B. K. and Zapatero, R. (2009), 'Our forgotten crisis', International Herald Tribune, 25 January; Evans, A. (2009), 'The feeding of the nine billion: global food security for the 21st century'. Chatham House Report, 26 January.

20 'The Arctic: a matter of concern to us all'. Speech at the conference 'Common Concern for the Arctic', Ilulissat, Greenland, 9 September 2008.

21 '50 years on, Egypt cashing in on Suez nationalisation', Agence France Presse, 23 July 2006.

23 Egypt's right to levy transit fees was laid down and clarified in the Suez Canal Convention in 1888.

24 UNCLOS (1982), Article 44. Article V (3) of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) prohibits transit fees 'except charges for transportation or those commensurate with administrative expenses by transit or with the cost of services rendered' which shall be 'reasonable' ;Article V (4).

25 Translated from Pravda and reprinted in Armstrong, T. E. (1988), 'Soviet proposals for the Arctic: a policy declaration by Mr Gorbachev', Polar Record, 24, (148), 68-9.

26 'The European Union and the Arctic Region'. Report by the EU Commission, Brussels, COM (2008), 763, 20 November 2008, p. 8.

27 EU report sets up Arctic turf war: expert', Canwest News Service, 22 November 2008.

28 'Security prospects in the High North'. NATO Report, 28-9 January 2009.

29 'China builds up strategic sea lanes', Washington Times, 18 January 2005.

Chapter 8

1 'US government sued over failure to protect polar bears', Guardian, 10 March 2008; 'Polar bear added to list of threatened species in US', Voice of America Press Releases and Documents, 16 May 2008.

2 BP's North Sea renewal strategy forecasts the delivery of 122 wells over the next 5 years, 41 of which will be subsea. See 'BP and Subsea - a combined vision', a presentation by David Campbell, BP's North Sea director and vice president. Available at: http://www.ukooa.co.uk/ downloadabledocs/365/3.%20David%20Campbell,%20BP.pdf

3 'Beaufort Sea oil exploration uncertain after court ruling', KTUU News, Alaska, 20 November 2008.

4 'Shell awarded Beaufort Sea leases - first step in rebuilding a position in Alaska', press release, Shell, 1 August 2005.

5 Quoted in 'Arctic takes brunt in dirty fight over oil', Mining Top News,

20 May 2007.

6 'US court says Shell can't drill near Alaska', International Herald Tribune,

21 November 2008.

7 It is estimated that around 175 billion barrels of the Alberta tar sands can be reached with existing technologies and another 135 billion could be tapped with technologies that are still under development.

8 'Shell hit by "dirty" Arctic furore', The Times, 20 May 2007.

9 'Shell hit by "dirty" Arctic furore'.

10 Environmental Defence (2008), Canada's Toxic Tar Sands: The Most Destructive Project on Earth, report, February, p. 7.

11 'Alaska pipeline "lesser environmental evil" than Mackenzie, says Sierra Club', Red Orbit Science News, 2 November 2005.

13 OPEC's World Oil Outlook, 2007, p. 113.

14 'Time bomb on the Bosphorus', The First Post, 24 November 2008.

15 'LNG facilities in urban areas: a security risk management analysis', Good Harbor Consulting, May 2005. The risk is also considered in a report by the Council on Foreign Relations 'Liquefied natural gas: a potential terrorist target?' February 2007.

16 'Russian nuclear dump plan attacked by Arctic governor', Guardian, 24 May 2002.

17 '18 years on, Exxon Valdez oil still pours into Alaska waters', Guardian, 2 February 2007.

18 'Oil exploration in Arctic highly risky', Science Daily, 31 January 2008.

19 'The Exxon Valdez oil spill: a report to the president', National Response Team, May 1989, p. 13.

21 'Oil spill response challenges in Arctic waters', a report by the World Wildlife Fund, January 2008.

22 'Nordic storm sinks Swedish ship', BBC News, 1 November 2006; 'Arctic riches coming out of the cold', International Herald Tribune, 10 October 2005.

23 See Paskal, C. (2009), 'The vulnerability of energy infrastructure to environmental change', briefing paper, London: Chatham House, p. 7.

25 'The Arctic: Oil's last frontier', CNN Money, 25 October 2006.

26 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, pp. 921-2.

27 'Global warming opens Arctic seabed to the search for oil and gas', International Herald Tribune, 30 October 2007.

28 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, pp. 470, 923.

29 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, p. 920.

31 'Sovereignty tussles over Arctic territory threaten to impede oil and gas exploration', Oilweek Magazine, October 2007.

32 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, pp. 917, 937.

Chapter 9

1 Lucas, E. (2009), The New Cold War: Putin's Russia and the Threat to the West. London and New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan.

2 'Russia accused of dropping cluster bombs on Georgian civilians', The Times, 15 August 2008.

3 Reported in an editorial of the Barents Observer, 18 August 2008.

4 'Georgia claims on Russia war called into question', New York Times, 6 November 2008.

5 Lakhtine, W. (1930), 'Rights over the Arctic', American Journal of International Law, 24, (1930), 707.

6 'Medvedev: Arctic resources are key to Russia's future', Seattle Times, 18 September 2008.

7 Quoted in 'Russia's Oil Industry: Trouble in the Pipeline', The Economist, 8 May 2008.

8 'Russian oil slump stirs supply jitters', Wall Street Journal, 15 April 2008; '"Threat" to future of Russian oil', BBC News, 15 April 2008.

9 'Russian oil output may fall for first time in decade in 2008', Bloomberg, 27 March 2008.

10 'Oilman with a Total solution', The Times, 8 April 2006.

11 Energy Information Administration statistics, 2008. Gazprom produces 84 per cent of Russia's natural gas.

12 Russia's gas production fell by 1.35 per cent in 2007.

13 Quoted in Mankoff, J. (2009), Eurasian Energy Security. Report by the Council on Foreign Relations, New York, NY, p. 4.

14 'Poland strives to diversify supplies', Financial Times, 5 November 2008; 'Power supergrid plan to protect Europe from Russian threat to choke off energy', The Times, 13 November 2008.

16 'The Military Balance'. IISS, February 2009; 'Russian military a "paper tiger" despite symbolic comeback, says IISS', The Times, 28 January 2009. This reiterated the view of the Institute of National Strategy (see 'Experts see decline in Russia's military', International Herald Tribune, 13 November 2007). At its peak the USSR spent around 30 per cent of its GDP on defence, around ten times more than Russia spent from 2007 to 2008. During the Georgian campaign Russia lost six planes to Georgia's ill-equipped air defences.

17 Caryl, C. (2009), 'The Russians are coming', The New York Review of Books, 56, (2), p. 24.

18 'Russian push on treason raises fears', International Herald Tribune, 21 December 2008.

19 Putin accused Mechel, and its main shareholder, Igor Zyuzin, of a number of unfair practices, wiping $5 billion off its capital value and stirring memories of other companies, most notably the energy giant, Yukos, that had also seemed to suffer ruthless persecution by the Russian state.

20 'The Central Bank in Moscow claimed to have spent $87.5 billion buying roubles between September and November 2008', Financial Times, 29 December 2008.

21 'Rouble at new low as Russia edges towards devaluation', The Times ,19 December 2008.

22 'Russia's oil boom: miracle or mirage', International Herald Tribune, 28 October 2008.

23 'Rouble exodus hits credit rating of Russia', Financial Times, 9 December 2008.

24 On Hans Island see Chapter 1, p. 20, Chapter 4, pp. 54-5 and Chapter 11, pp. 193-4. During the Cold War, United States and British submarines frequently sailed extremely close to Russia's national waters and sometimes beyond.

25 Hingley, R. (1977), The Russian Mind. New York, Charles Scribner, Chapter 3 passim.

26 Russia's historic fears of foreign attack are summarised in LeDonne, J. P. (1997), The Russian Empire and the World 1700-1917. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press.

27 Tsvetkov, A. (1985), 'Artika v planakh SShA i NATO' [The Arctic in US and NATO plans], Zarubezhnoye voyennoye obozreniye [Foreign military review], 10, (October), p. 8.

28 Morozov, G. and Krivinsky, B. (1982), 'Rol' prolivov v vooruzhennoy bor 'be na more' [The role of straits in maritime warfare], Morskoy sbornik [Naval digest], 8, 16-25.

29 The sign read 'Punishment for removing this sign: $250 fine or prison'. Franckx, E. (1993), Maritime Claims in the Arctic, p. 142.

30 1990 Agreement between the United States of America and Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Maritime Boundary (the Bering Sea Maritime Boundary Agreement).

31 Article 9 of the Spitsbergen Treaty proclaims that the archipelago may 'never be used for warlike purposes'.

32 The Thule air base is described in Chapter 10.

34 Connaughton, R. (2003), Rising Sun and Tumbling Bear: Russia's War with Japan. London: Cassell.

35 Armstrong, T. (1952), The Northern Sea Route: Soviet Exploration of the North East Passage. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 30.

36 Morozov, G. and Krivinsky, B. (1982), 'Rol' prolivov v vooruzhennoy bor 'be na more' [The role of straits in maritime warfare], Morskoy sbornik [Naval digest], 8, 16-25.

38 1991 Regulations for Navigation on the Seaways of the Northern Sea Route.

39 'USA to steal oil-rich Arctic region away from Russia', Pravda, 8 December 2005.

40 Rossiiskaya Gazeta, 16 January 2009.

41 After the failed attempt by USS Eastwind and Edisto to cross the Vilkitsky Strait in 1967, a spokesman for the United States Navy pointed out that

'the 1967 expedition has failed in its primary mission, but not without compensating factors. Freedom of the seas in the Arctic outside claimed territorial limits has been tacitly confirmed by the Soviets'. Franckx, E. (1993), Maritime Claims in the Arctic, p. 162.

43 On Article 234 see Chapter 7, p. 116.

44 UNCLOS (1982), Article 37.

45 See McLaren, A. (1985), 'The evolution and potential of the Arctic submarine', in Oceans '85: Proceedings of the Conference on Ocean Engineering and the Environment, 12-14 November, San Diego, CA; Pharand, D. (1968), 'Innocent passage in the Arctic', CCanadian Yearbook of International Law, 6, pp. 3-60.

46 Franckx, E. (1993), Maritime Claims in the Arctic, pp. 147-8.

47 For example, in December 2008 Sergey Stepura, head of the Federal Security Service (FSB) Directorate for the Arkhangelsk Oblast, told the news agency RIA Novosti that intelligence services from NATO and the CIA were trying to infiltrate Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets Autonomous Okrug and other regions, and that their agents had been 'spotted around sensitive areas'.

48 See in general Rothwell, D. R. (1996), The Polar Regions and the Development of International Law, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 204-5.

49 All quotes in this paragraph are from the article 'Nuclear waste poses Arctic threat', BBC News, 19 October 2006.

50 'A disaster waiting to happen: preparing for oil spills in Norway's Arctic waters', feature story published on the website of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), 19 January 2006.

51 Dag Nagoda, head of the WWF's Barents Sea Ecoregion Programme, quoted in 'A disaster waiting to happen: preparing for oil spills in Norway's Arctic waters', feature story published on the website of the WWF, 19 January 2006.

Chapter 10

1 Statement by the Department of State on the US-Danish Agreement on Greenland, 10 April 1941.

2 'Greenland says Russians must have say on U.S. missile shield', Agence France Presse, 23 August 2000.

3 'As a land thaws, so do Greenland's aspirations for independence', Christian Science Monitor, 16 October 2007.

4 'As a land thaws, so do Greenland's aspirations for independence', Christian Science Monitor.

6 Robert Lansing of Woodrow Wilson. See Macmillan, M. (2002), Peacemakers: The Paris Conference of 1919 and its Attempt to End the War. London: John Murray, p. 18.

7 At a meeting with Saddam Hussein on 25 July 1990, United States Ambassador April Glaspie had assured the Iraqi leader that 'we have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts like your border disagreement with Kuwait'. See Shlaim, A. (1995), War and Peace in the Middle East: A Concise History. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 93-4.

8 This was the point of, for example, Great Britain's 1919 Treaty with Persia. See Keddie, N. (2003), Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution. Newhaven, CT: Yale University Press.

9 National Security Presidential Decision Directive/NSPD 66, January 2009.

10 National Security Presidential Decision Directive/NSPD 66.

11 In his book Democracy in America, Volume 2, Chapter 10, the French writer Alexis de Tocqueville described the means by which the early settlers drove the Red Indians off their native lands. On the slaughter of the Red Indian see generally Brogan, H. (1999), The Longman History of the United States of America. London and New York, NY: Longman, pp. 62-9; Reynolds, D. (2009), America, Empire of Liberty: A New History. London: Allen Lane.

12 Dallek, R. (2007), Nixon and Kissinger. London and New York, NY: Penguin, p. 239.

13 'Manifest Destiny'. See Longley, C. (2002), Chosen People: The Big Idea that Shapes England and America. London: Hodder and Stoughton; Clarke, J. C. D. (1994), The Language of Liberty 1660-1832: Political Discourse and Social Dynamics in the Anglo-American World. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press; Lipset, S. M. (1996), American Exceptionalism: A Double-Edged Sword. London: W. W. Norton & Co.

14 Holmes, S. (2008), 'Breaking the ice: emergent legal issues in arctic sovereignty', Chicago Journal of International Law, 9, (1), 323-53.

15 Article 51 of the 1945 UN Charter acknowledges 'the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a member of the United Nations'. On 8 November 2002 a second UN Resolution, 1441, decreed that 'Iraq has been and remains in material breach of its obligations under relevant resolutions'. This was used by the US and UK as a justification for the attack that followed 4 months later.

16 UNCLOS, Annex VI, Article 1.

17 UNCLOS, Article 298, (1), (b). Rivkin's views were expressed at a conference, 'The Law of the Sea Treaty: Help or Hindrance?', held by the American Enterprise Institute, July 2007.

18 In 1970, Richard Nixon had proclaimed that 'I am today proposing that all nations adopt as soon as possible a treaty under which they would renounce all national claims over the natural resources of the seabed beyond the point where the high seas reach a depth of 200 metres, and would agree to regard these resources as the common heritage of mankind'. See his 'Statement About United States Oceans Policy', 23 May 1970.

19 The Energy Information Agency's report, Annual Energy Outlook 2009, predicts a moderate recovery in the production of Alaskan oil although not to the levels of the 1980s.

20 The Annual Energy Outlook 2008 report (p. 79) predicted that US oil production will increase slightly from 5.1m b/d in 2006 to a peak of 6.3m b/d in 2018 and then drop gradually to 5.6m b/d by 2030. Alaskan production is expected to wane gradually from 1.8m b/d to less than half that figure by 2030.

21 Remarks of Senator Barack Obama, at Washington DC, 28 February 2006.

22 Energy Information Agency statistics, 2008.

23 Geneva Convention on the Continental Shelf 1958, Article 1.

24 'New seafloor maps may bolster US Arctic claims', Associated Press, 12 February 2008.

26 Written testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington DC, 27 September 2007.

27 Tunander, O. (1989), Cold Water Politics: The Maritime Strategy and Geopolitics of the Northern Front. London: Sage.

28 UNCLOS (1982), Articles 17, 38.

29 'Chinese overseas direct investment and the economic crisis', The World Today, Chatham House, London, January 2009, pp. 15-16.

30 'Concern grows as extent of Rio Tinto's concessions to Chinalco is revealed', The Times, 14 February 2009.

31 'Washington opposition forces Chinese to withdraw oil offer', Guardian, 3 August 2005.

32 Martin, M. F. (2008), 'China's sovereign wealth fund'. Congressional Research Service Report, 22 January, p. 5.

33 See, for example, John Kampfner's article, 'The West's great new threat is right at home in the city', Guardian, 26 July 2007.

34 'Credit crunch plays into China's shopping plans', International Herald Tribune, 20 February 2009.

35 Presidential Decision Directive/NSC-26.

36 'A push to increase icebreakers in the Arctic', New York Times, 17 August 2008.

37 National Security Presidential Decision Directive/NSPD 66.

Chapter 11

1 C$ refers to Canadian dollars.

2 'Ottawa buying up to 8 Arctic Patrol ships', CBC News, 9 July 2008.

3 United States Navy official website. 'USS Charlotte achieves milestone during under-ice transit', 1 December 2005. Available at: http://www.navy. mil/search/display.asp?story_id=21223

4 'US sub may have toured Canadian Arctic zone', National Post, 19 December 2005.

5 'Martin offers "necessary measures" in Arctic', CBC TV, 19 December 2005.

9 The story of these early expeditions is told in Calvert, J. (1961), Surface at the Pole: The Story of the USS Skate. London: Hutchinson.

10 Joe Clark, Minister for External Affairs, House of Commons, Debates, vol. IV at 6,043, 20 June 1985.

11 Quoted in Kathleen Harris' article 'Laying claim to Canada's internal waters', Sun Media, 23 February 2007.

12 Trudeau, P. E. (1993), Memoirs. Toronto, ON: McClelland and Stewart, p. 293.

14 Official website of the Prime Minister Stephen Harper. 'Prime Minister Stephen Harper announces new Arctic offshore patrol ships', 9 July 2008. Available at: http://pm.gc.ca/eng/media.asp?id=1742

15 Mitchell Sharp, Minister for External Affairs, admitted that Canada was

'not prepared to litigate with other states on vital issues concerning which the law is either inadequate, non-existent or irrelevant to the kind of situation Canada faces, as in the case of the Arctic', House of Commons, Debates, vol. VI at 5,952, 16 April 1970.

16 Trudeau, P. E. (1970), 'Canadian Prime Minister's Remarks on the Proposed Legislation', 9 ILM 600 at 601.

17 House of Commons, Debates, vol. VI at 5,951, 16 April 1970.

18 Statement by Joe Clark to the House of Commons, Debates, vol. V at 6,463, 10 September 1985.

19 There is an important distinction between 'transit' and 'innocent' passage. A coastal state has considerable powers over ships that make 'innocent passage' through its territorial sea or EEZ (UNCLOS (1982), Article 21) but has to treat an international strait in the same way as high seas. Under UNCLOS (1982), Part II Section 2, 'there shall be no suspension of transit passage' by a coastal state (Article 44), although the state can adopt laws and regulations to ensure safety and environmental standards (Article 42).

20 A treaty that preceded UNCLOS (1982) was the Territorial Sea Convention, 1958.

21 UNCLOS (1982), Articles 37, 38; see also Chapter 4, pp. 51-2.

23 'Russia accused of annexing the Arctic for oil reserves by Canada', Sunday Telegraph, 18 May 2008.

24 Official website of the Prime Minister Stephen Harper. 'PM announces Government of Canada will extend jurisdiction over Arctic waters', 27 August 2008. Available at: http://pm.gc.ca/eng/media.asp?category=1&id=2248

25 Interview with Kathleen Harris of Sun Media, 'Laying claim to Canada's internal waters', 23 February 2007.

26 The 2005 governmental document was 'Canada's International Policy Statement: A role of pride and influence in the world', Government of Canada document, Ottawa. Ten years before, the government had published 'Canada in the World: Canadian Foreign Policy Review', Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Ottawa.

27 Interview with Kathleen Harris of Sun Media.

28 'Return to Arctic waters slowly gains momentum', Calgary Herald, 7 November 2007.

29 Website of the property company Private Islands Inc. Available at: http:// www.privateislandsinc.com/

30 The exaggerated importance of Hans Island is discussed in Chapter 1, p. 20.

31 'Disputing boundaries', CBC News Online, 11 October 2005.

32 Interview with Reuters, 25 July 2005.

33 'Canada flexes its muscles in dispute over Arctic wastes', Daily Telegraph, 23 August 2005.

34 'Imperial Oil acquires exploration parcel in Beaufort Sea', press release, 19 July 2007.

35 'Canada's Unconventional Revolution', Petroleum Economist, January 2008.

36 Ipsos-Reid survey, 18 August 2008.

37 UNCLOS (1982), Annex II, Articles 1-9.

38 See Introduction p. 5.

39 The 1911 Convention for the Preservation and Protection of Fur Seals was signed by the United States, Great Britain, Russia and Japan. On the 1920 Spitsbergen Treaty see Chapter 4, pp. 55-57, and Chapter 6, p. 101.

40 Professor Michael Byers', speech to the Vancouver Institute, 28 January 2006.

Chapter 12

1 'Norway to dip into $332bn oil fund', Financial Times, 14 December 2008.

2 'Norway sees oil production falling 9.7 per cent this year', Bloomberg, 8 January 2009.

3 'Norway: A haven for oil production', Alexander's Oil and Gas Connections, 21 July 2004.

4 'The Norwegian Government High North strategy', Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 1 December 2006, p. 56.

5 'Norway offers 79 oil/gas exploration blocks', Reuters, 27 June 2008.

6 'Norway proceeds with seismic tests in Lofoten', Oil and Gas Journal, 16 June 2008.

7 'Norway oil spill contained, stirs fears for Arctic', Reuters, 14 December

2007.

8 'Extent of Norway's continental shelf in the High North clarified', press release, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 15 April 2009.

9 See Pedersen, T. (2006), 'The Svalbard continental shelf controversy', Ocean Development and International Law 37, 3, (4), 339-58.

10 'Norway challenged by Russian plans in Spitsbergen waters', Barents Observer, 5 August 2008.

11 'Russia to reopen scientific station on Svalbard', Barents Observer, 23 December 2008.

12 'Russia, Norway to jointly fight oil spills', New Europe, 16 June 2008.

13 Offical website of the Kremlin. 'Russian Foreign Policy Concept 2008', 12 July

2008. Available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/text/docs/2008/07/204750. shtml

14 'The Norwegian Government High North strategy' (2006), p. 9. This was also the theme of Foreign Minister Stoere's speech in Arkhangelsk, 'Norway and Russia in the High North: common opportunities, common challenges', 21 January 2009.

15 Press conference at Tromsoe, 15 April 2005. See Pedersen, T. (2006), 'The Svalbard continental shelf controversy', 353.

16 On 9 June 2005 the Standing Committee unanimously stated that 'bilateral dialogues with Canada, France, the UK, Germany, the USA and the EU will become very important in time to come' and stressed the need for obtaining 'international understanding for the necessary control and enforcement measures' in the Svalbard zone.

17 Article 9 of the 'Agreed minutes on the Delimitation of the Continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles between the Faroe Islands, Iceland and Norway in the southern part of the Banana Hole in the Northeast Atlantic'.

18 'Agreement on Continental Shelf in the Norwegian Sea', press release, Norway Mission to the UN, 20 September 2006.

19 'Global warming opens Arctic seabed to the search for oil and gas', International Herald Tribune, 30 October 2007.

21 'Industry experts see future for exploration offshore Iceland', Alexander's Gas and Oil Connections, 28 October 2008.

22 Reported by NRK Media, 16 August 2004. See Pedersen, T. (2006), 'The Svalbard continental shelf controversy', 347.

23 'Canada and Denmark join rush to claim Denmark', Daily Telegraph, 14 August 2007.

24 'Danish team heads for North Pole', BBC News, 13 August 2007.

26 See Chapter 5.

27 Minister for Finance and Foreign Affairs, Per Berthelsen's speech to the 'Arctic Frontiers' conference, Tromsoe, Norway, 19 January 2009.

28 'Danish doubts over Greenland vote', BBC News, 27 November 2008.

29 'As a land thaws, so do Greenland's aspirations for independence', Christian Science Monitor.

30 'As a land thaws, so do Greenland's aspirations for independence', Christian Science Monitor.

31 'As a land thaws, so do Greenland's aspirations for independence', Christian Science Monitor.

32 In 2008, the Energy Information Administration predicted that China's oil consumption will continue to grow during 2009, with daily oil demand reaching 8.4 million barrels. This anticipated growth of over 800,000 bbl/d represents 32 per cent of projected world oil demand growth for the period. However, this estimate was published before the full severity of the global economic depression became clear.

33 For more information on China National Offshore Oil Corporation's bid for Unocal see Chapter 10, p. 179.

34 'Conditions ripe for reshuffle in energy sector', Financial Times, 6 January 2009.

35 'China eyes developed mine assets', Financial Times, 5 January 2009.

36 'China to boost ties with Zambia', BBC News, 3 February 2007.

37 'How the Bush administration should handle China and South China Sea maritime territorial sea', Heritage Foundation, 5 September 2001.

38 'Chinese plan to expand navy points to bigger role', Financial Times, 17 April 2009.

39 Kaplan, R. D. (2009), 'Center stage for the twenty-first century', Foreign Affairs, 88 (2), 16-32.

Conclusion

1 Under UNCLOS (1982), Annex II, Article 8, 'in the case of disagreement by the coastal state with the recommendations of the Commission, the coastal state shall, within a reasonable time, make a revised or new submission to the Commissions'. This also leaves open the possibility of making a further claim if the coastal state claims to have discovered new geological evidence.

2 Professor Frederic Lasserre, quoted in 'Canada says science backs up its Arctic claim', Agence France Presse, 9 August 2008.

5 Another example of just such a scenario was the Yangtze River incident in 1949.

7 See Paskal, C. and Lodge, M. (2009), 'A fair deal on seabed wealth: the promise and pitfalls of Article 82 on the outer continental shelf', briefing paper, London: Chatham House.

10 'The Norwegian Government High North strategy', (2006), p. 16.

12 UNCLOS (1982), Article 234.

13 'Nato chief would put military in Arctic', Associated Press, 30 January 2009.

15 The proposals of the World Wildlife Fund to preserve the Arctic's environment are mentioned in Chapter 8, pp. 132.

16 'The European Union's strategy of sustainable management for the Arctic', speech by Dr Joe Borg to the 'Arctic Frontiers' conference, Tromsoe, Norway, 19 January 2009.

17 Jeffrey Garten, 'Create a global authority for Arctic oil and gas', Financial Times, 14 August 2008.

18 Rothwell, D. R. (2008), 'The Arctic in international affairs: Time for a new regime', Brown Journal of World Affairs, XV, (I), 241-54.

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