Scenarios

Two contrasting scenarios and three methane emission reduction packages are developed. Each scenario is for the long run (2000-2100). The scenarios depict different possible futures and the reduction packages show different ways of combining methane abatement options. An existing integrated assessment model (IMAGE) is used to analyse the consequences of six emission reduction strategies for future air temperature. A reduction strategy is taken here as a scenario plus a methane abatement package.

The scenarios P and Q are in general agreement with scenarios as described in the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B-IMAGE and B1-IMAGE (Table 13.4) (IPCC, 2000). For the respective scenarios (P and Q), P1 and Q1 here contain no CH4 abatement (i.e. they are the baselines to which reduction strategies are compared), P2 and Q2 contain moderate methane abatement, and P3 and Q3 contain maximum methane abatement. The storylines of the P1 and Q1 baseline scenarios, and of the CH4 reduction strategies P2 and Q2 and P3 and Q3, are given below.

Scenario P describes a prosperous world with an economic growth of 3 per cent per year, with relatively low population growth, resulting in 8.7 billion people in 2050 and 7.1 billion in 2100. Present trends in globalization and liberalization are assumed to continue, in combination with a large technological change through innovations. This leads to relatively high economic growth in both the industrialized and the non-industrialized regions of the world. Affluence, in terms of per capita gross regional product, converges among world regions, although the absolute differences in affluence are growing. Increasing affluence results in a rapid decline in fertility. The global economy expands at an average annual rate of 3 per cent to 2100, reaching around $525 trillion. This is about the same as average global growth since 1850. Global average income per capita reaches about $21,000 by 2050 contributing to a great improvement in

Table 13.4 Basic assumptions of scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios

Scenario

AlBiofuels

B1

A2

B2

Population 2020

7.5 billion

7.6 billion

8.2 billion

7.6 billion

Population 2050

8.7 billion

8.7 billion

11.3 billion

9.3 billion

Population 2100

7.1 billion

7.1 billion

15.1 billion

10.4 billion

World GDP in 2020 (1012

US$ ,990)

56

53

41

51

World GDP in 2050 (1012

US$ ,990)

181

136

82

110

World GDP in 2100 (1012

US$ ,990)

525

330

243

235

Resource base

Includes

Identified

Includes

Identified

unconventional

resources

unconventional

resources

(oil, hydrates etc.)

(oil, hydrates etc.)

Note: GDP = gross domestic product. Source: IPCC (2000)

Note: GDP = gross domestic product. Source: IPCC (2000)

health and social security for the majority of people. High income translates into high car ownership, sprawling suburbia and dense transport networks. Increasing service and information orientation leads to a significant decline in intensity of energy and materials. Energy and mineral resources are abundant in this scenario because of the rapid technical progress. This reduces resource use per unit of output, but also the economically recoverable reserves. Methane emissions from fossil sources are growing. Final energy intensity (end-use energy per GDP) decreases at a rate of 1.3 per cent per year. With the rapid increase in income, dietary patterns are assumed to shift initially to a high meat and milk diet with related increasing animal numbers and increasing methane emissions from animals and manure, but this may decrease subsequently with increasing emphasis on the health of the ageing society. Growth could produce increased pressure on the global resources. Conservation of natural areas is changing in management of natural resources.

Scenario Q is a contrasting scenario with a much lower demand in all sectors because of the lower GDP development (<3 per cent per year growth). The Q scenario describes a world where the modernization of the OECD countries has spread to the other regions over the period 2000 to 2100. A shift takes place from an economy predominantly relying on heavy industry towards a society with an economy predominantly based on services with an increasing dematerialization of production, recycling of materials and increasing energy efficiency. As in scenario P, the world population starts to drop after 2050 from 8.7 billion downward to 7.1 billion people. Combined with a population that peaks in 2050 and returns to numbers below the expected 2020 world population, this leads to a moderate increase of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions and resulting concentrations in the atmosphere for Q. Increasing affluence leads to better living conditions, birth control and health care. Reduced fertility leads to a stabilizing global population in the middle of this century and a gradual decrease of global population between 2050 and 2100. Urbanization is halted or even reversed to more decentralized living supported by the information revolution. Affluence measured as the per capita gross regional product converges among world regions at a faster rate than in the BAU IPCC92 scenarios. The economy becomes more oriented to services and information exchange. As a consequence there is an increasing decline in the energy intensity and materials intensity of production. Renewable resources increasingly replace fossil fuels. The methane emissions from fossil sources will decrease compared to scenario P. The growing energy demand in the tropical regions and the high degree of energy efficiency measures makes electricity the most important energy carrier. Technology transfer from OECD countries to less developed regions is very successful in Q, and the industry in the more populous regions such as India and China is converted to comply with the highest pollution prevention standards in the world. Fuel desulphurization is becoming standard. The energy efficiency of power production and production in iron and steel and the chemical industry in India and China is increasing at a high rate of at least 1-1.5 per cent per year. In power production the conversion efficiency increases by at least 10 per cent between 2000 and 2100 to 48 per cent for coal, 53 per cent for oil and 58 per cent for gas. Transmission losses in power lines decrease to 8 per cent in all regions in 2100. Lower energy and material intensity in manufacturing results in falling energy demands in industry. Technology transfer from the industrialized countries to the less industrialized regions is accelerated to combat pollution. Materials recycling becomes a global business. Increasing recycling of waste reduces landfill methane emissions. To solve congestion, public transport is boosted by large investments. Examples are subways in larger cities, bicycling lanes and clean electric buses. Fast trains connect the larger cities. Air traffic is largely intercontinental. Private cars remain important, but saturation occurs in use at lower than present-day levels in the US. Hybrid and electric cars are increasing because of low petrol use, low noise and reduced pollution. Bicycling also increases. The rapid expansion of telecommunication and information technology gives the less developed regions large opportunities. Cell phones and satellite systems become the means of communication in Africa and Latin America. The growth of mega-cities is slowing down. Governments understand that in metropolitan areas large investments are needed in public transport to reduce urban pollution. The quality of systems to collect garbage and of landfill management needs improving. Landfill gas recovery and use is improved, but especially in the methane reduction strategies. Traditional burning of biomass is abandoned and biomass is increasingly used to produce liquid fuels or in BIG/ISTIG technology. Especially for the land-rich regions such as Latin America and Africa the production costs of biomass-derived fuels drop to $2-3/GJ. The land surface that is used for biomass fuels is at least 800 million ha or the size of Brazil to meet demands. Plantations for biomass or biofuels show a strong increase in all regions. Trade in biomass-derived liquid fuels between regions is increasing. Cultivation occurs on surplus agricultural land and does not lead to additional deforestation. In earlier scenario analysis with a low energy supply system (Leemans et al, 1998), plantation forests were assumed to encroach on virgin tropical forests with a risk of declining biodiversity. Globally, the pressure due to the major increase in the demand for food and fodder in the period 1990-2030 is almost completely compensated by an increase in productivity. In agriculture, average yields in cereals for example in non-OECD countries increase by a factor of four. In OECD countries, these increase by a factor of two. Forest area is declining until 2030 but expanding after 2030. More efficient agriculture and improved production relieve the pressure on pristine forests. The improved production in agriculture leads to an expansion of forest area of 30 per cent in the period between 2030 and 2100. Large forest reserves are implemented and developed for eco-tourism. The number of dairy cattle shows a decline in this century because the improvement in production efficiency is faster than the growth of milk consumption. The number of animals slaughtered for beef increases in the period 1995 to 2060 as a result of increasing consumption of meat notwithstanding the increasing animal productivity. The consumer trend is away from the Western-style diet with high meat consumption, as people become aware of its implications on land use and health. This results in lower livestock numbers and related reductions in methane emissions. Farmers shift to sustainable practices. As a result, fertilizer use starts declining. This reduces nitrous oxide emissions from high-input agriculture. Subsistence agriculture and fuelwood use rapidly decline. Self-sufficiency in food production is increasing but food trade remains large in a safe world. Logging becomes sustainable and most wood is produced from plantations. In some regions, production of commercial biofuels is increasing. Large pristine forest areas are converted to conservation areas to safeguard biodiversity. Promoting compact cities and major transport and communication corridors controls human settlements. Current infrastructure is improved rather then extended.

The total costs of the efforts needed to limit CH4 emissions in a growing economy under the P2, P3 and Q2, Q3 scenarios are then calculated by comparing with the baselines of P1 and Q1.

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