Forestry Projects In The Cdm Pipeline

At the end of 2008, only one project had been registered but no CERs had been issued. A/R projects in the validation stage numbered 35 (one project has reached the registration stage and emerged from the pipeline) and 14 of these were small-scale projects. Of the large-scale projects 15 were in Asia/Pacific, nine in Latin America, nine in Africa and two in Europe. Not all projects have buyers, the World Bank being the most important so far (see Table 2.3).

Table 2.4 shows that A/R projects are of minor importance compared with other types of CDM projects, contributing less than 1 per cent to the number of projects in the UNFCCC pipeline. The expected contribution of those projects is only 0.4 percent of CERs by the end of the first

Table 2.3 Buyers of afforestation and reforestation projects in the CDM, including small-scale projects, November 2008

Afforestation Reforestation

World Bank 1 5

BioCarbon Fund, World Bank 0 7

Other 1 15

No funding 3 14

Total in CDM pipeline 5 41

Source: UNEP Risoe (2008b).

commitment period in 2012 when they will be registered and set against Annex I country emissions.

A somewhat different picture emerges from an analysis by EcoSecurities of A/R projects (Neeff et al., 2007). EcoSecurities was by far the largest company buying CERs and it was therefore in a position to look further back in the pipeline. In 2007 there were an estimated 50 to 70 A/R projects under development. A majority of the projects were in Latin America, a quarter were in Africa and a small number were in Eastern Europe and south-east Asia.

Of the projects, 30 were capable of detailed analysis: two-thirds of the projects were long-term (lCERs) and a third short-term (tCERs), and a typical project covered 6000 to 8000 hectares. Most projects estimated a credit generation potential in terms of C02e of 15 tonnes, per hectare, per year by 2012. This expectation is in line with the estimate of an average of 14 tonnes made for an A/R project, established in 2006, by 2012, in Figure 2.2 above. However, 15 percent of projects estimated credit potential averaging over 20 tonnes per year by 2012, a level that it is suggested by Neeff et al. (2007: 4) is erroneously based on linear tree growth rates; these projects may not therefore survive the scrutiny of the Executive Board of the CDM.6 At the end of 2008 there were 179 projects in the JI pipeline but there were no JI forestry projects (UNEP, Risoe, 2008b).

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