The Results of Experimental Calculations

In recent years a wavelet-analysis of the considered time series values was widely spread. The main advantage of this method is that it gives reliable results at non-stationary series of analyses.

The results of wavelet-transformation [7] applied to time series of average annual air temperature according to data of Naryn meteorological station (2,040 m above sea level) have been considered. Measured data for processing cover an 110-year period from 1897 to 2008. It is known that global warming increase is 0.7°C per 100 years. Average annual warming velocity at middle altitudes of Kyrgyzstan for all period of observations is 60 times lower than the global one, but warming velocity in winter period is at the level of the global average. This can be explained by spatial and time heterogeneity of the warming process.

For wavelet-transformation the anomalies of average annual temperatures DTi (t) were used with extraction of trend temperatures, calculated by a least-square method. A continuous wavelet-transformation method was applied to this temperature series.

The analysis of wavelet-transformation data scalograms shows that in temperature variations with confidence probability level P > 0.87 the peaks correspond to periods 2.8-3.0; 5.0-5.5; 8.0; 11-12; 16-18; 21-23; 25-27; 35-37; 40-43; 49-52; 85-95 years. These results testify a real connection of surface temperature variations above mid and high altitudes of Kyrgyzstan, in central part of Central Asia region, with solar activity variations.

The level of available data allowed the implementation of an empiric modeling of long-term temperature variations regime of lower atmosphere above Central Asia. Beginning in 2005, the average annual temperature stabilized at a level of 12.1°C and, consequently, temperature trend was absent in that period. So, the observed increase in CO2 concentration is accompanied by temperature stabilization at the near-surface atmosphere, which puts in doubt the greenhouse effect theory.

Natural climate fluctuations are connected with temperature fluctuations of the ocean surface temperature. The ocean contribution in atmosphere warming is comparable with energy contribution of the Sun. At that it is necessary to connect phases and variations of ocean streams and ocean surface water temperature with cyclic variations of the Sun radiation regime.

On the other hand, the ocean scientists say that the increase in the ocean temperature just by 0.1°C will cause the increase of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere in the order of tens or even hundreds times higher than the emissions of all industrial companies in the world.

In this connection it is necessary to note that scientists in area of physics of atmosphere, meteorology, geophysics, and climatology gathered at the conference of UN Commission on climate change (IPCC) in December 2009 in Copenhagen could not adopt a unique declaration on climate change on the Earth and greenhouse emissions quotes, because the opinions of scientists divided into two camps. One part of scientists considered that climate warming will continue, the other part tried to prove that there will be no warming except the resulting from the secular solar activity, and, if the ocean surface temperature decrease, the temperature of surface atmosphere will also decrease.

According to many-year data of surface temperature variations in Kyrgyzstan, a stabilization of its growth and even some decrease in recent 3-4 years is marked, though CO2 concentration is slowly increasing. According to data of Bishkek meteorological station, average annual temperature stabilization occurred from 2005 to 2009, and temperature growth is not forecasted for the future.

When periods and phases of surface atmosphere temperature regime fluctuations are known, it is possible to do model calculations of their variations against a background of average periodical temperature values linear trend growth. So, the implemented model calculation subjected to solar factor shows that by 2013-2015 the average annual temperature values can decrease up to the level of 1991-1995.

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