Results of the Empirical Downscaling Method

Generally, the results of the empirical downscaling show stronger increase of the air temperature in the winter and summer, and weaker decrease of precipitation in the winter than the results estimated by GCMs. The projections for temperature and precipitation are compatible for the other seasons.

Table 23.3 Projected changes of average daily air temperature T (°C) and precipitation RR (%) for the entire territory of Republic of Macedonia according SRES scenarios

DJF

JJA

Annual

2025

2050

2075

2100

2025

2050

2075

2100

2025 2050

2075

2100

T

0.8

1.7

2.3

3.0

1.4

2.5

4.1

5.4

1.0 1.9

2.9

3.8

RR

0

1

2

-1

-7

-17

-27

-37

-3 -5

-8

-13

23.3.2.1 South-Eastern and Central Parts of Republic of Macedonia/Sub-Mediterranean Climate Regions

If the empirical downscaling projections for the region of south-eastern Macedonia (with prevailing influence of sub-Mediterranean climate) and for the central parts of Macedonia (with a combined influence of continental and sub-Mediterranean climate) are compared, a less intensive temperature change is evident for the first one in the winter and more intensive - in the summer and autumn. Changes of the air temperature in the spring are comparable in both sub-regions and also, the highest increase of air temperature is expected in the summer. The difference between winter and summer increase of the air temperature is especially evident for the south-eastern region. The expected changes in precipitation are similar for both sub-regions as practically no change in precipitation is expected in the winter season and a decrease in precipitation - in all other seasons (Table 23.4).

23.3.2.2 Southern and South-Western Part of Republic of Macedonia/ Continental Climate Region

Both parts of Macedonia are under the prevailing influence of continental climate [7, 8]. The climate change projections for these two regions are quite different although not very remote to each other. In the case of southern region, the projections of precipitation change are very similar to the regions with prevailing or partial influence of sub-Mediterranean climate.

Almost no change of precipitation is expected in the winter and decrease in the other seasons, the strongest decrease being in the summer. A slightly stronger signal in the temperature change is expected for this region in comparison to regions with sub-Mediterranean climate influence. The difference is especially evident in projections for the winter period. On the contrary, projections of temperature changes for the south-western region are much lower than those for the region represented by Bitola and Prilep. Additionally, even a slight increase of precipitation is expected for the winter but an evident decrease in the other seasons. The different response of

Table 23.4 Projected changes of average daily air temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) for (a) central part of Macedonia under a combination of sub-Mediterranean and continental climate impacts (represented by locations Veles, Strumica, Skopje-Petrovec, Stip) and (b) south-eastern part of Macedonia under the sub-Mediterranean climate impacts (represented by locations Gevgelija and Nov Dojran)

DJF JJA Annual

Table 23.4 Projected changes of average daily air temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) for (a) central part of Macedonia under a combination of sub-Mediterranean and continental climate impacts (represented by locations Veles, Strumica, Skopje-Petrovec, Stip) and (b) south-eastern part of Macedonia under the sub-Mediterranean climate impacts (represented by locations Gevgelija and Nov Dojran)

DJF JJA Annual

2025

2050

2075

2100

2025

2050

2075

2100

2025

2050

2075

2100

(a)

T

1.0

2.3

3.2

4.3

1.4

2.6

4

5.4

1.1

2.2

3.3

4.5

RR

0

1

2

-1

-6

-11

-18

-23

-3

-6

-9

-13

(b)

T

1.0

2.1

2.9

3.8

1.5

2.9

4.5

6.0

1.2

2.3

3.4

4.6

RR

-2

0

-1

-3

-4

-9

-14

-19

-3

-5

-9

-12

Table 23.5 Projected changes of average daily air temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) for (a) southern part of Macedonia under continental climate impacts (represented by locations Bitola and Prilep) and (b) south-western part of Macedonia under the continental climate impacts (represented by locations Ohrid and Resen)

Table 23.5 Projected changes of average daily air temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) for (a) southern part of Macedonia under continental climate impacts (represented by locations Bitola and Prilep) and (b) south-western part of Macedonia under the continental climate impacts (represented by locations Ohrid and Resen)

DJF

JJA

Annual

2025

2050

2075

2100

2025

2050

2075

2100

2025

2050

2075

2100

(a)

T

1.2

2.7

3.9

5.3

1.5

2.7

4.3

5.7

1.2

2.5

3.8

5.1

RR

-1

-1

-1

-3

-5

-12

-17

-22

-3

-5

-9

-13

(b)

T

0.9

2.0

2.9

3.9

1.1

2.0

3.1

4.2

0.9

1.9

2.9

3.9

RR

2

3

7

5

-3

-9

-13

-18

-2

-3

-5

-8

these two regions to large-scale climate variability could be related to the proximity of large water bodies (Lake Prespa and lake Ohrid) in the case of Resen and Ohrid stations (see Table 23.5).

23.3.2.3 Eastern Part of Republic of Macedonia/Continental Climate Region and North-Western Part of Macedonia/Alpine Climate Region

The annual pattern of expected temperature change in this region is similar to the pattern for the continental region in Southern Macedonia but the intensity of change is slightly lower. A comparison with stations Bitola and Prilep also shows that a slight increase of precipitation is expected in the winter but decrease in all other seasons, being most intensive, in relative sense, in the summer. In the summer and autumn, an increase in the daily air temperature is expected.

For all the three climate sub-types under the mountainous influence (mountain/ continental, sub-Alpine, Alpine) that can be found in the north-western part of Macedonia, the projections for the change in air temperature and precipitation are very similar. An increase of few percent in the precipitation is expected in the winter and a more intense decrease in all other seasons. The expected air temperature change is the strongest in this region of the country. The highest increase in air temperature is expected in the summer but the difference between seasons is not significant (see Table 23.6).

0 0

Post a comment