Results of Direct GCM Output for the Entire Territory of the Country First Estimate

The projected changes of average daily air temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) for Macedonia were based on direct GCM output interpolated to geographic location 21.5°E and 41.5°N with regard to the period 1961-1990. The values were presented separately for different seasons and based on projections of results from four GCMs (CSIRO/Mk2, HadCM3, ECHAM4/OPYC3, NCAR-PCM) scaled to six emission scenarios (SRES A1T, A1Fl, A1B, A2, B1, and B2). The Mean values were calculated as average across different emission scenarios and different GCMs; the Low/High values were minimum/maximum across different scenarios and averaged across different GCMs.

As a first estimate of expected climate change over the territory of the entire country, the results of selected GCMs were interpolated to the geographic location 21.5°E and 41.5°N, i.e., approximately to the middle of the country. The results of such approach, called direct GCM output, showed the highest increase in air temperature until the end of this century to be in the summer season together with the most intensive decrease in precipitation. In the case of precipitation, practically no change was expected in the winter but a decrease in all other seasons. Details on the direct GCM output projections can be found in Table 23.3.

The direct GCM output method provides only a rough description of the expected climate change in the twenty-first century in Macedonia, mostly about changes of the average conditions over the territory of entire country. The spatial variability of meteorological parameters, as well as heterogeneous climate regions and topography of the country should also be kept in mind. Thus, the direct GCM output approach can present a benchmark for more detailed and complicated methods like empirical downscaling for the purpose of regional projection of future climate change [5, 6].

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