Predictive Simulations

Results from the first stage of modeling, which ended up with the equilibrium (or virgin state) hydraulic head and concentration distribution, are used as initial conditions for the second stage in which the long term effects of decreasing recharge rates and increasing demand are assessed. In the second stage, effects of a 15% decrease in recharge are examined together with five different pumping stresses (0, 5, 10, 15 and 20 L/s). For simulation of the effects of groundwater pumping, a well is placed in the middle of the island aquifer where depth to the freshwater-saltwater interface is at maximum and the well is screened between the elevations -5 and -25 m (Fig. 6.1).

For each sub-scenario, the well is pumped at different rates. Consequently, two sets of simulations representing the change in recharge rates are performed for 100 years period, while each set is composed of five sub-scenarios corresponding to different pumping stresses.

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