Introduction

The climate change is a process strongly affecting the water resources management as well as the flood frequency of the extreme events. Indeed, the improving of the flooding forecast is strongly felt in Europe. The European Directive 2000/60/CE is the reference framework for the water resources management which is also considering the hydraulic risk. However, although there is struggle in finalizing rules for the defence of the territory, the floods frequency across the Europe is drastically increased. The phenomenon is quite complex because many interacting variables are involved such as climate change, hydro-geological structure of the territory, land use, education of the population to understand the risk. It is well known that the climate change may affect the hydrological cycle and, hence, the flood frequency. For studying the phenomenon, probable scenarios can be inferred by an integrated use of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) which provide, at worldwide scale, indications on future climate change and hydrological models that, once these indications are downscaled, incorporate them into the hydrological cycle of basins [1, 2]. In this context, this work attempts to assess the effect of the climate change on the flood frequency by using a continuous hydrological model coupled with a stochastic generation of rainfall and temperature. Scenarios based on forecasts of the GCM-HadCM3 models for temperature and rainfall is used for perturbing time series. Information provided by HadCM3 is only considered here to address the proposed procedure. Four sub-catchments located in the Upper Tiber basin, Central Italy, are considered as case study.

0 0

Post a comment