Impacts of Climate Change

Figure 10.7 presents a comparison between the flow computed upstream of the Thissavros dam on the Nestos River for the IPCC A1B climate scenario and a reference flow series under prolonging climate conditions of the past 25 years. It is worth noting that this reference series contains similar dry spells to the ones experienced in the area in the early 1990s. This climate stability hypothesis is also sometimes referred to as "business as usual" or "baseline scenario" in the EU WFD nomenclature. Compared to climate conditions in the recent past, the A1B scenario clearly predicts a flow decrease.

Fig. 10.7 Average year river flow simulated for the IPCC A1B case and a prolongation of past climate conditions (baseline scenario, current situation)

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