Conclusions

The quantifiable resilience thinking may yield an actionable set of observations and management practices that is based on the broad understanding of complex environmental-human-climate systems. This approach does not assume or require that the system studied, is in equilibrium or near equilibrium at all times, nor it is controllable. For the previous command and control paradigms of environmental management, precise understanding of the system was needed and the policy decisions made relied on the accuracy of this understanding and related predictions. This command and control concept has been shown to fail in several applications in the past. Currently, the mathematics of resilience thinking is at its infancy. The deterministic analysis discussed here is for the purpose of introducing and demonstrating the concept. It is not sufficient to characterize the complex environmental-human-climate systems we are currently working on. However, the idea is promising and many applications in complex systems analysis and management are shifting to models that include resilience concepts, which offer a broader understanding of possible system behavior and the effects of stochastic and human intervention on this behavior.

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