Conclusions

The proposed procedure for analysing climate change effects on the hydrological cycle turned out quite useful for assessing how much the floods frequency can be affected. Based on the HadCM3 model, the analysis in four sub-catchments located in Central Italy showed that the geo-morphological and land-use characteristics of basins might have a non trivial role in changing floods frequency. Further investigations based on disaggregated data of the GCMs are necessary to support these finding.

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