Conclusions

The self-organizing map (SOM) was useful for evaluating climate change effects on water-resource dependent ecosystem services. In case 1, it was possible to simultaneously reconstruct temperature and precipitation change over 2,000 years from which short-term breaks similar to global results for the northern hemisphere were observed in some states. The regional differences in long-term trends were attributed to variations in the ENSO teleconnection. In case 2, the SOM was found to useful for forecasting the effects of ENSO events on ground-water resources in basins with perennial streamflow. In case 3, the SOM made it possible to forecast the simultaneous and probable effects of ENSO events on multiple post-fire response variables including runoff, landslides, flooding, and debris flows.

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