Under the requirements of the UNFCCC, valuable research has been carried out in the Republic of Macedonia in order to provide estimations for future changes in the climate conditions for the twenty-first century. Significant progress has been achieved with the Second National Communication for which not only general assessment of the climate change for the territory of entire country has been made in accordance with the latest GCMs and emission scenarios but also first estimations for the regional changes of the basic climate parameters are made.
The direct GCM output projected for Macedonia show more intensive increase of the air temperature in the summer than in the winter season. The expected change of air temperature in the country during the twenty-first century is much higher than the expected global temperature change but the results of our study are consistent with other available studies for regions that include Macedonia.
The local projections of climate change indicate that different climatic regions of Macedonia would respond slightly different to the large-scale climate changes. The continental climate region in the south-western part of Macedonia - close to the Ohrid and Prespa lakes - seems to have the weakest response to large-scale climate change in sense of absolute temperature and precipitation changes whereas the north-western part being under the prevailing mountain/Alpine climate influence would have the strongest response.
The obtained differences between results from different GCMs show the need for further investigations and application of various methods and tools (e.g., PRECIS, dynamical downscaling, etc.) for critical review of present results about the future climate change on the territory of Republic of Macedonia.
According to climate change vulnerability assessment for water resources sector, reduction of outflows from the country is primarily caused by climate change. It is likely that larger water bodies (lakes Ohrid, Prespa and Dojran and rivers) in three catchments areas (river Vardar, river Crni Drim and river Strumica) would suffer serious water stress in the next century. This would lead to raise transbound-ary water management issues.
Overcoming the permanent problems in operation and reduction of water monitoring network, modernization of equipment, and provision of results of further research would enable to identify the most vulnerable regions in Republic of Macedonia and to implement adequate adaptation measures.
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